The Basics Of Currency Trading - Investopedia

Some Secrets of Forex Strategy and How to Trade Foreign Currency

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Lesson From This Week's Volatility - Risk Management

The markets handed a tough lesson this week to many options traders. Some may never return, most will be licking their wounds for weeks or months, and a very few will take this as an opportunity to trade the carnage. The lesson to learn is not about your trading strategy or indicators, but risk management.
I have worked as a market strategist for the past 15 years alongside a few thousand retail and institutional investors in foreign currency, futures, equities and options. A common experience amongst self-directed investors is a repetitive string of small winners, followed by a few big losses that wipe out weeks or months of gains. This is because the common theme with successful traders isn’t their strategy or which indicators they use, but rather their process for risk management.
There is no shortage of empirical evidence and studies, examining how humans skew our view on risk and reward. Research shows that accepting a loss is viewed to be twice as painful compared to the same amount of gain. This leads to the behavior of hanging onto losers far too long and closing winners far too soon.
The reality of investing is that there will be losing trades and one must first accept this as a fact. In my experience, it is the pursuit of preventing small losses that ironically triggers some of the largest losses. We may have all experienced having a small loss, adding to the position with the hope of getting back to breakeven, only to have the position decline even further into a larger loss. Unfortunately, some investors will compound this habit, resulting in a total account blowup or loss. This begs the question; how do we trick our brain into turning this around?
To help with this quirk of human nature, professionals turn to a rules-based approach. First, there needs to be a decoupling of the concept of winning trades from being profitable. While the two are correlated they are not bound together. Most investors that struggle, make the incorrect assumption, that if they just win more often, they will be profitable. However, evidence shows that it is far more likely that a few big losses are typically what pushes accounts into the negative. To this point, the primary focus of investors is not to prevent losses in the first place, but only to prevent large losses. This can be achieved through discipline with the help of trading tools such as stop loss orders, option strategies with limited risk, and never risking more than 2% of your account per trade. Moreover, it is best to never add risk to a losing position.
Trading is an infinite game, not a finite game, yet 95% of traders still try to "win" every trade. There is no such thing as winning in trading, when you focus on the wrong goal, that's when you spin your wheels and get nowhere. If you don't understand this, do a quick google search on "finite vs. infinite game".
Take this lesson into next week, if you're in a losing position on Friday's close and "hoping" to get yourself back to breakeven next week, think twice if it's worth blowing up the rest of your account for it. Or do you take a loss and regroup?
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/r/neoliberal elects the American Presidents - Part 49, Bush v Dukakis in 1988

Previous editions:
(All strawpoll results counted as of the next post made)
Part 1, Adams v Jefferson in 1796 - Adams wins with 68% of the vote
Part 2, Adams v Jefferson in 1800 - Jefferson wins with 58% of the vote
Part 3, Jefferson v Pinckney in 1804 - Jefferson wins with 57% of the vote
Part 4, Madison v Pinckney (with George Clinton protest) in 1808 - Pinckney wins with 45% of the vote
Part 5, Madison v (DeWitt) Clinton in 1812 - Clinton wins with 80% of the vote
Part 6, Monroe v King in 1816 - Monroe wins with 51% of the vote
Part 7, Monroe and an Era of Meta Feelings in 1820 - Monroe wins with 100% of the vote
Part 8, Democratic-Republican Thunderdome in 1824 - Adams wins with 55% of the vote
Part 9, Adams v Jackson in 1828 - Adams wins with 94% of the vote
Part 10, Jackson v Clay (v Wirt) in 1832 - Clay wins with 53% of the vote
Part 11, Van Buren v The Whigs in 1836 - Whigs win with 87% of the vote, Webster elected
Part 12, Van Buren v Harrison in 1840 - Harrison wins with 90% of the vote
Part 13, Polk v Clay in 1844 - Polk wins with 59% of the vote
Part 14, Taylor v Cass in 1848 - Taylor wins with 44% of the vote (see special rules)
Part 15, Pierce v Scott in 1852 - Scott wins with 78% of the vote
Part 16, Buchanan v Frémont v Fillmore in 1856 - Frémont wins with 95% of the vote
Part 17, Peculiar Thunderdome in 1860 - Lincoln wins with 90% of the vote.
Part 18, Lincoln v McClellan in 1864 - Lincoln wins with 97% of the vote.
Part 19, Grant v Seymour in 1868 - Grant wins with 97% of the vote.
Part 20, Grant v Greeley in 1872 - Grant wins with 96% of the vote.
Part 21, Hayes v Tilden in 1876 - Hayes wins with 87% of the vote.
Part 22, Garfield v Hancock in 1880 - Garfield wins with 67% of the vote.
Part 23, Cleveland v Blaine in 1884 - Cleveland wins with 53% of the vote.
Part 24, Cleveland v Harrison in 1888 - Harrison wins with 64% of the vote.
Part 25, Cleveland v Harrison v Weaver in 1892 - Harrison wins with 57% of the vote
Part 26, McKinley v Bryan in 1896 - McKinley wins with 71% of the vote
Part 27, McKinley v Bryan in 1900 - Bryan wins with 55% of the vote
Part 28, Roosevelt v Parker in 1904 - Roosevelt wins with 71% of the vote
Part 29, Taft v Bryan in 1908 - Taft wins with 64% of the vote
Part 30, Taft v Wilson v Roosevelt in 1912 - Roosevelt wins with 81% of the vote
Part 31, Wilson v Hughes in 1916 - Hughes wins with 62% of the vote
Part 32, Harding v Cox in 1920 - Cox wins with 68% of the vote
Part 33, Coolidge v Davis v La Follette in 1924 - Davis wins with 47% of the vote
Part 34, Hoover v Smith in 1928 - Hoover wins with 50.2% of the vote
Part 35, Hoover v Roosevelt in 1932 - Roosevelt wins with 85% of the vote
Part 36, Landon v Roosevelt in 1936 - Roosevelt wins with 75% of the vote
Part 37, Willkie v Roosevelt in 1940 - Roosevelt wins with 56% of the vote
Part 38, Dewey v Roosevelt in 1944 - Dewey wins with 50.2% of the vote
Part 39, Dewey v Truman in 1948 - Truman wins with 65% of the vote
Part 40, Eisenhower v Stevenson in 1952 - Eisenhower wins with 69% of the vote
Part 41, Eisenhower v Stevenson in 1956 - Eisenhower wins with 60% of the vote
Part 42, Kennedy v Nixon in 1960 - Kennedy wins with 63% of the vote
Part 43, Johnson v Goldwater in 1964 - Johnson wins with 87% of the vote
Part 44, Nixon v Humphrey in 1968 - Humphrey wins with 60% of the vote
Part 45, Nixon v McGovern in 1972 - Nixon wins with 56% of the vote
Part 46, Carter v Ford in 1976 - Carter wins with 71% of the vote
Part 47 - Carter v Reagan v Anderson in 1980 - Carter wins with 44% of the vote
Part 48, Reagan v Mondale in 1984 - Mondale wins with 55% of the vote
Welcome back to the forty-ninth edition of /neoliberal elects the American presidents!
This will be a fairly consistent weekly thing - every week, a new election, until we run out.
I highly encourage you - at least in terms of the vote you cast - to try to think from the perspective of the year the election was held, without knowing the future or how the next administration would go. I'm not going to be trying to enforce that, but feel free to remind fellow commenters of this distinction.
If you're really feeling hardcore, feel free to even speak in the present tense as if the election is truly upcoming!
Whether third and fourth candidates are considered "major" enough to include in the strawpoll will be largely at my discretion and depend on things like whether they were actually intending to run for President, and whether they wound up actually pulling in a meaningful amount of the popular vote and even electoral votes. I may also invoke special rules in how the results will be interpreted in certain elections to better approximate historical reality.
While I will always give some brief background info to spur the discussion, please don't hesitate to bring your own research and knowledge into the mix! There's no way I'll cover everything!
George Bush v Michael Dukakis, 1988
Profiles
  • George Bush is the 64-year-old Republican candidate and the current Vice President. His running mate is US Senator from Indiana Dan Quayle.
  • Michael Dukakis is the 55-year-old Democratic candidate and the Governor of Massachusetts. His running mate is US Senator from Texas Lloyd Bentsen.
Issues and Background
  • Two years ago, a Lebanese magazine exposed an arrangement in which the United States appeared to attempt to trade arms for hostages with the current Iranian regime, despite the current arms embargo on Iran. Within a month, it further became clear that profits from these weapons sales were made available to assist the Contras in Nicaragua, assistance that had been prohibited by Congress. President Reagan tasked a commission with investigating the matter, which confirmed the allegations. Days after the report was released, President Reagan spoke to the American people, saying:
    A few months ago I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not. As the Tower board reported, what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated, in its implementation, into trading arms for hostages. This runs counter to my own beliefs, to administration policy, and to the original strategy we had in mind.
    • Vice President Bush has repeatedly characterized himself as out of the loop, saying, "I've said all along I didn't know about the diversion of funds." He does admit being aware of the arms sales generally. He has also said that the President should not be "precluded from soliciting" aid for groups like the Contras from private or foreign actors. Early this year, Bush had a combative interview with Dan Rather on the subject, when Bush took issue with the segment on the Iran-Contra affair that aired before the interview, saying it impugned his integrity. Asked by Rather how he could sign on to such a policy, Bush said:
      I'll tell you how I could. The same reason the president signed on to it. When a CIA agent is being tortured to death, maybe you err a bit on the side of human life. But everybody's admitted mistakes. I've admitted mistakes. And you want to dwell on them. And I want to talk about the values we believe in, and the experience and the integrity that goes with all of this. And what I'm going to do about education. There's nothing new here. I thought this was a news program.
    • Dukakis has questioned Bush's characterization of himself as out of the loop, saying in one news conference:
      Mr. Bush, you sat through five meetings on this subject. How can you say now that you did not know this was a straight arms-for-hostages deal?
  • As Governor, Dukakis was a strong supporter of a state inmate furlough program which had started before his time as Governor. After the Massachusetts legislature passed legislation banning those convicted of first-degree murder from such furloughs, Dukakis vetoed the bill, arguing it would defeat the rehabilitative purpose of such furloughs.
    • Bush and his allies have highlighted the case of William Horton, who was convicted of murder and sentenced to life without parole for killing a 17-year-old gas station attendant during a robbery. Horton was released on a weekend furlough program but never returned to prison. Almost a year later, Horton was convicted of raping a woman after assaulting and restraining her fiancé. He was sentenced again to life in prison in Maryland by a judge who refused to return Horton to Massachusetts on the chance that he could be released again.
    • Dukakis and his allies have pointed out that 45 states as well as the federal prison system allow some kind of furloughs, and at least 16 states offer furloughs to some first-degree murderers. Dukakis has recently signed legislation in opposition to his earlier veto, now banning furloughs for first-degree murderers. Bush has accurately pointed out that before this legislation, while Massachusetts was not the only state granting furloughs to first-degree murderers (as he had at one point incorrectly claimed) it was the only state granting them to inmates sentenced to life without parole. The Dukakis campaign has further argued that the Massachusetts furlough-escape rate is below the national average, and they have also pointed out Massachusetts' recently falling crime rates.
    • Further, Democrats have run their own "halfway house" ad in response, attacking Bush for helping create and obtain funding for a halfway house for paroled and early-release felons, one of whom went on to be convicted of rape and murder. Democrats point out that Bush continued to praise the halfway house and similar programs a year after the murder.
    • Lloyd Bentsen, Jesse Jackson, and others have argued that the advertisements run by the Bush campaign and other independent groups on the furlough program have racial undertones. Bush has rejected this argument, saying, "there isn't any racism ... It's absolutely ridiculous and everybody sees this as some desperation kind of move." Bush has further asked whether this means that Democrats' halfway house ad is racism against Hispanics.
  • This year, evidence emerged that the CIA made large payments to de facto leader of Panama, Manuel Noriega. Bush has said he didn't know about Noriega's involvement with illegal drug trafficking until early this year when Noriega was indicted in Florida. Information about Noriega's connections has appeared in some intelligence briefing materials since 1983, but it is unclear whether or not Bush came into contact with this particular material. Bush has further said that "it is our administration that is trying to bring this man to justice, once we found out he had gone bad." Dukakis has regularly attacked Bush on the subject of Noriega, having said, "you can't be serious about waging a real war against drugs when you have an administration that can't say no to Noriega."
  • Bush made a bold pledge in his nomination acceptance speech, saying:
    And I'm the one who will not raise taxes. My opponent now says he'll raise them as a last resort or a third resort. When a politician talks like that, you know that's one resort he'll be checking into. My opponent won't rule out raising taxes, but I will, and the Congress will push me to raise taxes, and I'll say no, and they'll push, and I'll say no, and they'll push again, and I'll say to them, "Read my lips: no new taxes."
    Dukakis argues that this pledge is not credible, as the Reagan Administration has already approved of some tax increases over the past couple years. He has also expressed concerns about the implications for the national debt, saying:
    Now if we continue with these policies, this trillion and a half dollars worth of new debt that’s already been added on the backs of the American taxpayer is going to increase even more, and if we continue with this for another four years, then I’m worried about the next generation, whether we can ever turn this situation around.
  • Boston Harbor has been called by Bush and many others "the dirtiest harbor in America." At one point, Dukakis had fought for a waiver from the Clean Water Act. The Bush campaign has used Boston Harbor to attack Dukakis' environmental record as Massachusetts Governor, with Bush saying in a campaign stop at the harbor itself:
    While Michael Dukakis delayed, the harbor got dirtier and dirtier. Half a billion gallons of barely treated sewage a day into the harbor; 70 tons of sewage sludge per day into the harbor; PCBs into the harbor; trace metals into the harbor...
    The Dukakis campaign argues that this has been a long-time issue and that while many Massachusetts governors have "turned their back" on Boston Harbor, Dukakis is the one who has actually tried to do something about it. It is true that Dukakis has now presided over the start of a massive construction project designed to stop the dumping of sewage and sludge in the harbor, but some environmental activists argue this is only because of lawsuits that have been filed in state and federal courts.
  • The death penalty has come up in both the debates and campaign advertisements. Bush believes that some crime are "'so heinous, so brutal and so outrageous'' that execution is necessary, while Dukakis argues it is ineffective in reducing violent crime. Significant controversy surrounded both Bernard Shaw's question and Dukakis' answer on a question about the death penalty in the second debate, with Kitty Dukakis calling the question "theater and inappropriate." See the excerpts from the second debate for the question and answer.
  • In his nomination acceptance speech, Vice President Bush made an issue of Dukakis' veto as Governor of a bill that would have required teachers (by penalty of a fine) to lead schoolchildren in reciting the Pledge of Allegiance, with Bush asking, "what is it about the Pledge of Allegiance that upsets him so much?" Dukakis says he supports the Pledge of Allegiance but believes the bill was unconstitutional.
  • In September, the Dukakis campaign set up a campaign stop in Michigan including a photo op in which Dukakis would ride in a tank. Here is one of the photos. The Bush campaign has used the footage and photos in their ads.
  • Very recently in October, Dukakis' deputy field field director Donna Brazile told a group of reporters that Bush needed to "fess up" about an alleged (and unsubstantiated) extramarital affair with an assistant, further saying, "the American people have every right to know if Barbara Bush will share that bed with him in the White House." Shortly after, the Dukakis campaign disavowed her comments and fired her.
  • While not always going into specifics, the Dukakis campaign has attacked the Republican VP nominee Dan Quayle as inexperienced and incompetent. Bush has continually articulated confidence in his running mate. Quayle has also been attacked following revelations that a family connection helped get him into the National Guard at the height of the Vietnam War, and that he gained admission to law school through an affirmative action "second chance" program primarily intended for minorities and the economically disadvantaged. The Bush campaign points out that in both cases, Quayle technically did not break any rules.
  • Despite having once been considered a moderate on the issue, Bush himself admits to an "evolution" on the issue of abortion and has generally maintained something closer to the more restrictive stance that President Reagan has held. Bush supports a constitutional amendment that would ban most abortions, but supports exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. Dukakis is pro-choice.
  • Dukakis has gone hard against Bush and Quayle on the issue of trade, particularly with Japan. Dukakis has called for "economic patriotism," has criticized Bush for calling economic relations with Japan "superb," and has mocked Dan Quayle for saying that foreign investment produces American jobs. On the Reagan Administration's trade policies, Dukakis has said:
    They ignored the unfair practices of our trade rivals. Their reckless fiscal policies drove up the value of the dollar, pricing our exports out of foreign markets and flooding America with cheap imports.
    Further, Dukakis has said:
    In the first four years of the Dukakis-Bentsen administration, we'll turn that trade deficit back into a trade surplus, and reclaim those jobs for American workers.
    Dukakis says this will be accomplished by opening foreign markets to American goods through a doctrine of reciprocity as "a cornerstone of trade policy" as well as by investing in education, training, research and development. Bush has criticized Dukakis' trade policy as protectionism in disguise. Bush aides have indicated that Bush will continue the trade policies that characterized the last few years of the Reagan Administration, with an added emphasis on job training.
Debate Excerpts
Quotations in excerpt titles refer to moderator's prompt, block quotations are from named candidate(s).
First Presidential Debate (full transcript)
(1) Bush on what it is about "these times that drives or draws so many Americans to use drugs":
I think we’ve seen a deterioration of values. I think for a while as a nation we condoned those things we should have condemned. For a while, as I recall, it even seems to me that there was talk of legalizing or decriminalizing marijuana and other drugs, and I think that’s all wrong ... We have to change this whole culture. You know, I saw a movie – “Crocodile Dundee.” And I saw the cocaine scene treated with humor, as though this was a humorous little incident. And it’s bad. Everybody ought to be in this thing. Entertainment industry, people involved in the schools, education.
(2) Dukakis on programs that he is "willing to cut to bring that deficit down":
I’ve suggested that there are certain weapons systems which we don’t need and we can’t afford ... Secondly, we’ve got to invest in economic growth in this country ... And, finally, we’ve got to go out there and collect billions and billions of dollars in taxes owed that aren’t being paid to this country ... The thing I don’t understand about Mr. Bush’s approach to this is how he could possibly be serious about bringing that deficit down given what he says he wants to do. He seems to want to spend a great deal of money on just about every weapon system; he says he’s against new taxes, although he’s broken that pledge at least times in the last year that I know of; he wants to give the wealthiest taxpayers in this country a five year, $40 billion tax break. He also wants to spend a lot of money on additional programs. If he keeps this up, he’s going to be the Joe Isuzu of American politics.
...
(BUSH in rebuttal): Is this the time to unleash our one-liners? That answer was about as clear as Boston harbor.
(3) Bush on his pledge "not to raise taxes of any kind" and whether he is concerned about the deficit:
...we’ve got to get the Democrats – Congress under control. They do all the spending, they appropriate every dime and tell us how to spend every dime. I’d like to ask the Governor to join in getting for the president what 43 governors have, the line-item veto. He has to operate in Massachusetts under a balanced budget proviso. I would like a balanced budget amendment.
(4) Dukakis on the "theme that keeps coming up about the way you govern is passionless, technocratic":
Peter, I care deeply about people, all people, working people, working families, people all over this country who in some cases are living from paycheck to paycheck, in other cases are having a hard time opening up the door of college opportunity to their children, in other cases, don't have basic health insurance which for most of us we accept as a matter of course and assume we're going to have in order to pay the bills that we incur when we get sick. I'm somebody who believes deeply in genuine opportunity for every single citizen in this country and that's the kind of passion I brought to my state.
(5) Bush on whether he is attempting to "brand" Dukakis by repeatedly emphasizing Dukakis' self-description as a "card-carrying" member of the ACLU:
But I don't agree with a lot of the - most of the positions of the ACLU ... I don't want my 10-year-old grandchild to go into an X-rated movie. I like those ratings systems. I don't think they're right to try to take the tax exemption away from the Catholic Church. I don't want to see the kiddie pornographic laws repealed. I don't want to see under God come out from our currency. Now, these are all positions of the ACLU, and I don't agree with them.
He has every right to exercise his passion, as what he said, a strong progressive liberal. I don't agree with that. I come from a very different point of view, and I think I'm more in touch with the mainstream of America.
(6) Dukakis on what he will do in a situation in which Americans are taken hostage:
But if there's one thing we also understand, it is that you cannot make concessions to terrorists - ever - because if you do it's an open invitation to other terrorists to take hostages and to blackmail us.
And that's the tragedy of the Iran-contra scandal. As a matter of fact, Mr. Bush was the chairman of a task force on international terrorism which issued a report shortly before that decision was made, and said, and rightly so, that we never, ever, can make concessions to terrorists and hostage takers.
And yet after sitting through meeting after meeting, he endorsed that decision, endorsed the sale of arms to the Ayatollah in exchange for hostages - one of the most tragic, one of the most mistaken foreign policy decisions we've ever made in this country, and I dare say encouraged others to take hostages, as we now know.
Vice Presidential Debate (full transcript)
(1) Bentsen on his disagreements with Dukakis on aid to the Nicaraguan Contras; Dukakis has called the aid policy "immoral and illegal":
Governor Dukakis and I have disagreed on the contra program, no question about that. But my big difference with this Administration is they look at the contra aid program as the only way to resolve that problem. They concentrate on that. And I really think we have to give peace a chance. And that's why I've been a strong supporter of the Arias plan - a plan that won the Nobel Prize for President Arias, the President of Costa Rica.
(2) Quayle rebutting Bentsen on the subject of campaign finance reform:
Senator Bentsen is the No. 1 PAC raiser. As a matter of fact, he used to have a $10,000 breakfast club. A $10,000 breakfast club. It only cost high-paid lobbyists, special interests in Washington, to come down and have breakfast with the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, the one that oversees all the tax loopholes in the Tax Code, $10,000. I'm sure they weren't paying to have corn flakes.
(3) Bentsen on why the American people should want a change after seeing "lower interest rates, lower unemployment, lower inflation and arms control deal with the Soviet Union":
You know, if you let me write $200 billion worth of hot checks every year, I could give you an illusion of prosperity too. This is an Administration that has more than doubled the national debt, and they've done that in less than eight years. They have taken this country from the No. 1 lender nation in the world to the No. 1 debtor nation in the world. And the interest on that debt next year, on this Reagan-Bush debt of the nation, is going to be $640 for every man, woman and child in America, because of this kind of a credit card mentality.
(4) Quayle/Bentsen exchange on experience:
QUAYLE: ...I have far more experience than many others that sought the office of Vice President this country. I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the Presidency.
...
BENTSEN: Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.
...
QUAYLE: That was really uncalled for, Senator.
BENTSEN: You're the one that was making the comparison, Senator. And I'm one who knew him well. And frankly I think you're so far apart in the objectives you choose for your country that I did not think the comparison was well taken.
Second Presidential Debate (full transcript)
(1) The first question of the debate and Dukakis' answer:
SHAW: Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?
DUKAKIS: No, I don't, Bernard, and I think you know that I've opposed the death penalty during all of my life. I don't see any evidence that it's a deterrent and I think there are better and more effective ways to deal with violent crime. We've done so in my own state and it's one of the reasons why we have had the biggest drop in crime of any industrial state in America, why we have the lowest murder rate of any industrial state in America.
(2) Bush on the prospect of Dan Quayle becoming President:
I'd have confidence in him. And I made a good selection. And I've never seen such a pounding, an unfair pounding, on a young Senator in my entire life. And I've never seen a Presidential campaign where the Presidential nominee runs against my Vice-Presidential nominee. Never seen one before ... He founded the - authored the Job Training Partnership Act that says to American working men and women that are thrown out of work for no fault of their own that they're going to have jobs ... He, unlike my opponent, is an expert in national defense - helped amend the I.N.F. treaty, so we got a good sound treaty when these people over here were talking about a freeze.
(3) Dukakis on whether he is "likable" enough:
I won the Democratic nomination in 51 separate contests. I think I'm a reasonably likable guy. I'm serious, though I think I'm a little more lovable these days than I used to be back in my youthe when I began in my state legislature.
But I'm also a serious guy. I think the Presidency of the United States is a very serious office. And I think we have to address these issues in a very serious way.
(4) Bush on who he thinks the heroes in America today are:
I think of a teacher right here. Largely Hispanic school. Jaime Escalante, teaching calculus to young kids, 80 percent of them going on to college. I think of a young man, now in this country, named Valladares, who was released from a Cuban jail, came out and told the truth in this brilliant book ''Against All Hope'' about what is actually happening in, in Cuba. I think of those people that took us back into space again, Rick Hauck, and that crew, as people that are worthy of this ... I think of Dr. Fauci. You've probably never heard of him. Oh, you did. Ann heard of him. He's a very fine research - top doctor at National Institute of Health - working hard doing something about research on this disease of AIDS.
(5) Dukakis rebuttal to Bush's answer related to appointing judges:
If the Vice President of the United States thinks that Robert Bork was an outstanding appointment, that is a very good reason for voting for Mike Dukakis and Lloyd Bentsen on the 8th of November. And I think Mr. Bush supported the Bork nomination.
You know, Mr. Bush has never appointed a judge. I've appointed over 130, so I have a record. And I'm very proud of it. I don't ask people whether they're Republicans or Democrats. I've appointed prosecutors. I've appointed defenders. I don't appoint people I think are liberal or people who think I --who think -- who I think are conservative. I appoint people of independence and integrity and intelligence, people who will be a credit to the bench. And those are the standards that I will use in nominating people to the Supreme Court of the United States.
(6) Bush rebuttal to Dukakis' answer on nuclear plants:
That is the closest I've ever heard the Governor of Massachusetts come to support anything having to do with nuclear. That's about as close as I've ever heard him. Yes, this Savannah River plant need - needs to be more safe. Will he join me in suggesting that we may need another plant, maybe in Idaho, to take care of the requirements - nuclear material requirements - for our Defense Department? I hope he will. This sounds like real progress here because we've had a big difference on the safe use of nuclear power for our energy base.
I believe that we must use clean, safe nuclear power. I believe that we - the more dependent we become on foreign oil, the less our national security is enhanced. And therefore, I've made some proposals to strengthen the domestic oil industry by more incentive going in to look for and find and produce oil; made some incentives in terms of secondary and tertiary production. But we're going to have to use more gas, more coal and more safe nuclear power for our energy base.
Platforms
Read the full 1988 Republican platform here.
Read the full 1988 Democratic platform here.
Videos
Debates
First Presidential Debate
Vice Presidential Debate
Second Presidential Debate
Speeches and Interviews
Dukakis nomination acceptance speech
Bush nomination acceptance speech
Bush interview with Dan Rather on Iran-Contra affair
Dukakis CBS roundtable interview
Advertisements
PAC "Willie Horton" anti-Dukakis ad
Bush "Revolving Door" anti-Dukakis ad
Bush family ad
Bush "Dukakis in the tank" ad
Dukakis "Massachusetts miracle" ad
Dukakis long-form ad
Dukakis "out of shape America" ad
Strawpoll
>>>VOTE HERE<<<
For some reason, the poll above says it is closed, even though on the "poll creator" side it says it has no deadline. This is very annoying. If you didn't vote in the first strawpoll, please feel free to vote in the poll below. I will add up the votes manually. Honor system, please do not vote in the below strawpoll if you already voted in the first one, thanks.
>>>VOTE HERE, TAKE 2<<<
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Tax Research, Strategies and Information Related to SPACs and their Warrants

Hello everyone,
I have often seen tax related questions, people not thinking about tax implications, or people misunderstanding taxes in their postings. As this is my area of expertise (I'm a CPA who does only taxes), I thought it would be a good opportunity to give some information and ideas back to the SPAC community. Here are a few thoughts/questions, I'm sure I'm missing a million things I could have also brought up.
  1. Are exercising of warrants (either cash or cashless) a taxable event? The answer to this question is simple, it's not a taxable event. The money paid for warrants and any cash paid to exercise becomes the basis of your new shares. See the research related to this answer below (can't link because it's research I found on my paid research software).
  2. A general thought on brokerage statements (1099's). It is likely that your brokerage will report most or all things correctly, but it is very possible they won't, 1099's are messed up all the time. Especially if you are doing more complicated things like warranty exercising, so don't just take their word for it if you see something you think is wrong. When tax time comes, take a real look at your statement and don't just assume everything is perfect on the summary page.
  3. Tax planning and SPACs. Most people hear a lot about short term vs long term and have a basic understanding of those tax rates and applications. A couple things to keep in mind: if you get into a SPAC near NAV early, and wait over a year that becomes a LTCG so you have an additional advantage with that strategy(as mentioned by BobbyNeedsLawAdvice in another post). Second, there is currently a 0% LTCG tax bracket in the United States for under $40,000 single income, $80,000 married. This one of the biggest loophole in existence in the US tax code in my opinion, it has only been around a couple years, and I think it will be gone in the next couple years (Tax rates will rise, because of our nations growing debt). This has application if people are going to take a "gap year" or something along those lines (which I have done myself and taken advantage of the tax opportunities and chilled in New Zealand for the year). You could "harvest" up to $40,000 of LTCG in this scenario and pay $0 in taxes.
  4. I've seen a few different questions about Roth IRA's and people thinking they have found potential loopholes with their SPAC trading. If you think you have a true loophole in a Roth, you are probably wrong, especially if it has to do with getting money in or out of the account. Basically with Roth you get free gains your whole life, then free money in your retirement, so just leave it in. If you really need money from your Roth, keep in mind you can take out your principle at any time. So if you had a $100,000 Roth with $20,000 principle and $80,000 gains. You could take that $20,000 out tax free at any point in time, but touching the earnings would be a tax disaster.
  5. Do you have specific questions? Especially if they are broadly applicable to the group and SPAC related, I will try to answers questions people have related to taxes, feel free to ask on this thread.

Research:

Reporting Requirements for Exercise of Options

If a covered security is acquired by or delivered to satisfy the exercise of an option, and the option was granted or acquired in the same account as the covered security, the amount of the premium received or paid for the option is treated as an adjustment to the gross proceeds from the later sale of the covered security or as an adjustment to the customer's adjusted basis in that security. Gross proceeds and basis reporting also generally is required when there is a lapse or closing transaction (as defined in IRC § 1234(b)(2)(A) ) with respect to an option on a specified security. The option reporting rules generally apply to options granted or acquired, on or after January 1, 2014 (IRC § 6045(h) ; Reg. §1.6045-1(m)?contextDocumentId=arp1209013e2c83dc86f7) ).
Rules for a broker to determine and report the information required under the broker reporting rules for an option that is a covered security under Reg. §1.6045-1(a)(15)(i)(E)(15)(i)(E)?contextDocumentId=arp1209013e2c83dc86f7) apply to the following types of options granted or acquired on or after January 1, 2014:
(A)
an option on one or more specified securities (which includes an index substantially all the components of which are specified securities);
(B)
an option on financial attributes of specified securities, such as interest rates or dividend yields; or
(C)
a warrant or a stock right (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(2)(i) ).
However, if an option, stock right, or warrant is issued as part of an investment unit described in Reg. §1.1273-2(h) , these rules apply to the option, stock right, or warrant if it is acquired on or after January 1, 2016 (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(2)(ii)(A)(2)(ii)(A)?contextDocumentId=arp1209013e2c83dc86f7) ).
Further, if the property underlying an option is a debt instrument that is issued by a non-U.S. person, or that provides for payments in a foreign currency, these rules apply to the option if it is granted or acquired on or after January 1, 2016 (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(2)(ii)(B) ).
Finally, these rules do not apply to compensatory options (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(2)(iii) ).
If an option is subject to IRC § 1256 , a broker must apply the rules described in Reg. §1.6045-1(c)(5) by treating the option as if it were a regulated futures contract and must report the information required under the regulation. A broker is permitted, but not required, to report the amounts for options and the amounts for regulated futures contracts as a net amount for each reportable item (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(3) ). If an option is not subject to IRC § 1256 , reporting requirements depend on whether or not the option was physically settled. If an option was physically settled, the premium, paid or received, would be used by the broker for the asset purchaser to adjust the basis of the purchased asset and by the broker for the asset seller to adjust reported proceeds (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(4)(i) ). If an option is settled for cash, a broker must reflect on Form 1099-B all payments made or received on the option. For a purchased option, a broker must report as basis the premium paid plus any costs (for example, commissions) related to the acquisition of the option and must report as proceeds the gross proceeds from settlement minus any costs related to the settlement of the option. For a written option, a broker must report as proceeds the premium received decreased by any amounts paid on the option and report $0 as the basis of the option (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(4)(ii) ).
For a right (including a warrant) to acquire stock received in the same account as the underlying security in a distribution that is described in IRC § 305(a) , a broker is permitted, but not required, to apply the rules described in IRC §§ 305 and 307 when reporting or accounting for the basis of the option and the underlying equity. If a stock right or warrant is acquired from the initial distributee, the buyer or transferee must treat it as an option covered by either the physical settlement or cash settlement rules (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(4)(iii) ). If more than one option is documented in a single contract, a broker must separately report the required information for each option as that option is sold (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(5)(5)?contextDocumentId=arp1209013e2c83dc86f7) ). Further, penalties will not be asserted under IRC §§ 6721 and 6722 if a broker in good faith determines that an index is, or is not, a narrow-based index described in section IRC § 1256(g)(6)(6)?contextDocumentId=arp1209013e2c83dc86f7) and reports in a manner consistent with this determination (Reg. §1.6045-1(m)(6) ).
submitted by josephvies to SPACs [link] [comments]

MADE IN AMERICA - Highlights of Joe's plan to ensure the future is made in America

THE BIDEN PLANS TO ENSURE THE FUTURE IS MADE IN AMERICA, BY AMERICANS

Joe spoke to America yesterday and laid a bold new vision to ensure the future will be made in America, by Americans.
Here are the many highlights of that plan:
• $400 billion Procurement Investment in clean energy and infrastructure plan to power new demand for American products, materials, and services and ensuring shipping on U.S.-flagged cargo carriers
• Retool and Revitalize American Manufacturers, with a focus on smaller manufacturers through incentives, additional resources, and new financing tools
• $300 Billion Investment in Research and Development (R&D) and Breakthrough Technologies, including electric vehicle technology, lightweight materials to 5G and artificial intelligence
• Ensure investments reach all of America and not limited by race, zip code, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, disability, religion or national origin
• Pursue Pro-American Worker Tax and Trade Strategy to fix harmful policies of Trump Administration to give manufacturers and workers the fair shot they need to compete for jobs and market share
• Bring back critical Supply Chains to America to eliminate dependency on China or other countries for critical goods in a crisis
• Create 5 million new jobs in manufacturing and innovation
• Use government’s purchasing power to buy American, boosting U.S. industries through historic procurement
• Tighten domestic content rules
• Eliminate loopholes which allow products to be stamped “Made in America”
• Close loophole currently allowing procurement officers within federal Agencies to waive buy American rules without explanation or scrutiny
• End false advertising from companies that label products as Made in America even if they’re coming from China or elsewhere
• Require all steel, iron, and manufactured products used in transportation projects are melted, mined, and manufactured in the U.S.
• Work with allies to modernize international trade rules and associated domestic regulations regarding government procurement, making sure U.S. and allies use their own taxpayer dollars to spur investment in their own countries
• Take steps to ensure American cargo is carried on U.S.-flag ships, leading to additional demand for American-made ships and U.S. merchant mariners

HISTORIC PROCUREMENT INVESTMENT

• Purchasing tens of billions of dollars of clean vehicles and products and ensure other countries will be buying the next generation of battery technology and electric vehicles manufactured by American workers
• Commit to purchasing American steel, cement, concrete, other building materials, and equipment, and in the process not only help rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and retrofit our buildings, but position our domestic companies to lead in resilient, sustainable production for the future
• Purchase critical medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, ensuring sufficient stockpiles to weather any crisis so Americans get best possible care
• Commit future purchases in advanced industries like cutting-edge telecommunications and artificial intelligence to only creating new, lasting American jobs and protecting our intellectual property and national security
• Require companies receiving procurement contracts, provide paid leave, fair overtime scheduling, pay at least $15 per hour and guarantee choice to join a union and bargain collectively
• Support small businesses including those owned by women and people of color
• Ensuring at least 23% of federal contracts get awarded to small businesses

RETOOL & REVITALIZE

• Provide capital for small to medium manufacturers to invest and compete
• Establish credit facility to supply capital, especially to smaller manufacturers, so aging factories can modernize, compete, and reduce carbon
• Quadruple Manufacturing Extension Partnership to help America’s small and medium-sized manufacturers compete for Buy American contracts and modernize (Trump tried to eliminate this program - Biden will quadruple it)
• Provide manufacturing tax credit to Retool and Revitalize
• Projects receiving credit will have to benefit local workers and communities, meeting strong labor standards, including paying workers a prevailing wage, employing workers trained in registered apprenticeship programs
• Expand Manufacturing Innovation partnerships

FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

• Accelerated Research & Development investment of $300 billion over 4 years to create millions of good jobs and to secure our global leadership in the most critical and competitive new industries and technologies
• Major increases in federal R&D spending, including new National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H), Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and other peer-reviewed science research grants to colleges and universities
• Investments in breakthrough technology R&D programs including 5G, artificial intelligence, advanced materials, biotechnology, and clean vehicles
• Competitive capital financing to encourage small businesses to commercialize cutting-edge technology, such as a scaled-up version of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, “America’s seed fund,” which provides capital to small businesses pursuing R&D commercialization in concert with research institutions
• Funds for creation or expansion of technical training programs around digital, statistical, and technology skills, funded by the Labor Department
• Infrastructure for educational institutions and partners to expand research
• Ensure technological change benefits workers, creates jobs, and strengthens the middle class
• Ensure U.S. government captures a share of the royalties of high-profitable products developed with federal R&D funding
• Give workers a voice in innovation and are first in line to benefit

USE FULL U.S. TALENTS & INVEST IN COMMUNITIES AND WORKERS

The economic opportunities from investment in innovation are not being shared throughout the U.S. - 25% percent of venture capital investment is concentrated in the San Francisco area, and 75% flows to just three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts. There are a significant number of diverse communities across every region of the country which can become new centers of job-creating innovation and production.
• Direct new federal investments to more than 50 communities across our nation that have the capabilities but have too often been overlooked
• Creating at least 200 new centers serving as research incubators and connect students underrepresented in fields critical to our nation’s future
• Dedicating additional and increased priority funding streams at federal agencies for grants and contracts for HBCUs and MSIs
• Requiring any federal research grants to universities with an endowment of over $1 billion to form a meaningful partnership and enter into a 10% minimum subcontract with an HBCU, TCU, or MSI
• Require competitive grant programs give similar universities opportunities to compete against each other, for example, ensuring that HBCUs only compete against HBCUs

JOB & EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY

• Career and technical education for high school students
• Free high-quality training programs
• Free community college and free tuition for 4-year degrees for families earning less than $125,000
• Invest $50 billion in high-quality training programs that give workers a chance to earn an industry-recognized credential without debt
• Create and expand community college-business-union partnerships to develop effective training programs
• Scale up work-based learning programs with a focus on building a diverse workforce, through opportunities like registered apprenticeships, pre-apprenticeship, and other labor-management training programs
• Work with unions to bring forward a new generation of registered apprenticeships in fields ranging from technology to manufacturing to care work, allowing workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic to train for jobs of the future while earning a decent income
• Help develop pathways for diverse workers to access training and career opportunities
Extend unemployment Insurance benefits for the duration of training, up-skilling, and reskilling programs while unemployment rates are elevated
• Invest $70 billion in Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Tribal Colleges and Universities, and Minority-Serving Institutions
• Invest $35 billion in HBCUs, TCUs, and MSIs to create research centers of excellence, build high-tech labs and other facilities, and strengthen graduate programs in fields including STEM
• Tackle workplace discrimination and harassment keeping so many women, especially women of color, from earning equal pay or fully realizing their professional goals

PRO-AMERICAN-WORKER TAX AND TRADE STRATEGY

• Take aggressive trade enforcement actions against China or any other country seeking to undercut American manufacturing through unfair practices, including currency manipulation, anti-competitive dumping, state-owned company abuses, or unfair subsidies
• Coordinated effort to pressure the Chinese government and other trade abusers to follow the rules and hold them to account when they do not
• Confront foreign efforts to steal American intellectual property
• Address state-sponsored cyber espionage against American companies
• Set forth clear demands and specific consequences if China’s government does not cease cyber espionage
• Develop new sanctions authorities against Chinese firms which steal U.S. technology,which will cut them off from accessing the U.S. market and financial system
• Establish a “claw-back” provision to force a company to return public investments and tax benefits when they close down jobs here and send them overseas
• Apply carbon adjustment fee against countries who are failing to meet their Paris Climate commitments
• Reverse tax policies that encourage outsourcing
• End incentives in the Trump tax giveaway that allow multinationals to dramatically lower taxes on income earned overseas and allow the largest, most profitable companies to pay no tax at all
• Confront global tax secrecy and avoidance, taking on individuals and businesses that stash their profits in tax havens to avoid paying their fair share
• Tighten anti-inversion rules that Obama-Biden put in place and which Trump has sought to weaken
• Support strong and independent trade unions here in the United States and in every one of our trading partners
• Enforce existing labor provisions and aggressively push for strong and enforceable labor provisions in any trade deal his administration

BRING BACK CRITICAL SUPPLY CHAINS

• Never again face shortages of critical products such as medical equipment when confronting a national crisis.
• Put Americans to work making critical products, from medical equipment and supplies to semiconductors and communications technology, here in the United States
• Close critical U.S. supply chain gaps by immediately directing a comprehensive and ongoing process to evaluate and protect key U.S. supply chains, starting in the first
• Leverage federal buying, including the Defense Production Act, BARDA, and federal procurement, to make sure that we make critical products in America
• Change the tax code to eliminate the incentives for pharmaceutical and other companies to move production overseas and establish new incentives for companies to make critical products in the U.S
• Rebuild critical stockpiles, ensure adequate surge manufacturing capacity in times of crisis, and regularly review supply chain vulnerabilities
• Work with allies to reduce their dependence on competitors like China while modernizing international trade rules to secure U.S. and allied supply chains
submitted by backpackwayne to democrats [link] [comments]

Joe's Made in America Plan

ENSURING THE FUTURE IS MADE IN AMERICA, BY AMERICANS

Joe spoke to America yesterday and laid a bold new vision to ensure the future will be made in America, by Americans.
Here are the many highlights of that plan:
• $400 billion Procurement Investment in clean energy and infrastructure plan to power new demand for American products, materials, and services and ensuring shipping on U.S.-flagged cargo carriers
• Retool and Revitalize American Manufacturers, with a focus on smaller manufacturers through incentives, additional resources, and new financing tools
• $300 Billion Investment in Research and Development (R&D) and Breakthrough Technologies, including electric vehicle technology, lightweight materials to 5G and artificial intelligence
• Ensure investments reach all of America and not limited by race, zip code, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, disability, religion or national origin
• Pursue Pro-American Worker Tax and Trade Strategy to fix harmful policies of Trump Administration to give manufacturers and workers the fair shot they need to compete for jobs and market share
• Bring back critical Supply Chains to America to eliminate dependency on China or other countries for critical goods in a crisis
• Create 5 million new jobs in manufacturing and innovation
• Use government’s purchasing power to buy American, boosting U.S. industries through historic procurement
• Tighten domestic content rules
• Eliminate loopholes which allow products to be stamped “Made in America”
• Close loophole currently allowing procurement officers within federal Agencies yo waive buy American rules without explanation or scrutiny
• End false advertising from companies that label products as Made in America even if they’re coming from China or elsewhere
• Require all steel, iron, and manufactured products used in transportation projects are melted, mined, and manufactured in the U.S.
• Work with allies to modernize international trade rules and associated domestic regulations regarding government procurement, making sure U.S. and allies use their own taxpayer dollars to spur investment in their own countries
• Take steps to ensure American cargo is carried on U.S.-flag ships, leading to additional demand for American-made ships and U.S. merchant mariners

HISTORIC PROCUREMENT INVESTMENT

• Purchasing tens of billions of dollars of clean vehicles and products and ensure other countries will be buying the next generation of battery technology and electric vehicles manufactured by American workers
• Commit to purchasing American steel, cement, concrete, other building materials, and equipment, and in the process not only help rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and retrofit our buildings, but position our domestic companies to lead in resilient, sustainable production for the future
• Purchase critical medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, ensuring sufficient stockpiles to weather any crisis so Americans get best possible care
• Commit future purchases in advanced industries like cutting-edge telecommunications and artificial intelligence to only creating new, lasting American jobs and protecting our intellectual property and national security
• Require companies receiving procurement contracts, provide paid leave, fair overtime scheduling, pay at least $15 per hour and guarantee choice to join a union and bargain collectively
• Support small businesses including those owned by women and people of color
• Ensuring at least 23% of federal contracts get awarded to small businesses

RETOOL & REVITALIZE

• Provide capital for small to medium manufacturers to invest and compete
• Establish credit facility to supply capital, especially to smaller manufacturers, so aging factories can modernize, compete, and reduce carbon
• Quadruple Manufacturing Extension Partnership to help America’s small and medium-sized manufacturers compete for Buy American contracts and modernize (Trump tried to eliminate this program - Biden will quadruple it)
• Provide manufacturing tax credit to Retool and Revitalize
• Projects receiving credit will have to benefit local workers and communities, meeting strong labor standards, including paying workers a prevailing wage, employing workers trained in registered apprenticeship programs
• Expand Manufacturing Innovation partnerships

FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

• Accelerated Research & Development investment of $300 billion over 4 years to create millions of good jobs and to secure our global leadership in the most critical and competitive new industries and technologies
• Major increases in federal R&D spending, including new National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H), Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and other peer-reviewed science research grants to colleges and universities
• Investments in breakthrough technology R&D programs including 5G, artificial intelligence, advanced materials, biotechnology, and clean vehicles
• Competitive capital financing to encourage small businesses to commercialize cutting-edge technology, such as a scaled-up version of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, “America’s seed fund,” which provides capital to small businesses pursuing R&D commercialization in concert with research institutions
• Funds for creation or expansion of technical training programs around digital, statistical, and technology skills, funded by the Labor Department
• Infrastructure for educational institutions and partners to expand research
• Ensure technological change benefits workers, creates jobs, and strengthens the middle class
• Ensure U.S. government captures a share of the royalties of high-profitable products developed with federal R&D funding
• Give workers a voice in innovation and are first in line to benefit

USE FULL U.S. TALENTS & INVEST IN COMMUNITIES AND WORKERS

The economic opportunities from investment in innovation are not being shared throughout the U.S. - 25% percent of venture capital investment is concentrated in the San Francisco area, and 75% flows to just three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts. There are a significant number of diverse communities across every region of the country which can become new centers of job-creating innovation and production.
• Direct new federal investments to more than 50 communities across our nation that have the capabilities but have too often been overlooked
• Creating at least 200 new centers serving as research incubators and connect students underrepresented in fields critical to our nation’s future
• Dedicating additional and increased priority funding streams at federal agencies for grants and contracts for HBCUs and MSIs
• Requiring any federal research grants to universities with an endowment of over $1 billion to form a meaningful partnership and enter into a 10% minimum subcontract with an HBCU, TCU, or MSI
• Require competitive grant programs give similar universities opportunities to compete against each other, for example, ensuring that HBCUs only compete against HBCUs

JOB & EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY

• Career and technical education for high school students
• Free high-quality training programs
• Free community college and free tuition for 4-year degrees for families earning less than $125,000
• Invest $50 billion in high-quality training programs that give workers a chance to earn an industry-recognized credential without debt
• Create and expand community college-business-union partnerships to develop effective training programs
• Scale up work-based learning programs with a focus on building a diverse workforce, through opportunities like registered apprenticeships, pre-apprenticeship, and other labor-management training programs
• Work with unions to bring forward a new generation of registered apprenticeships in fields ranging from technology to manufacturing to care work, allowing workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic to train for jobs of the future while earning a decent income
• Help develop pathways for diverse workers to access training and career opportunities
Extend unemployment Insurance benefits for the duration of training, up-skilling, and reskilling programs while unemployment rates are elevated
• Invest $70 billion in Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Tribal Colleges and Universities, and Minority-Serving Institutions
• Invest $35 billion in HBCUs, TCUs, and MSIs to create research centers of excellence, build high-tech labs and other facilities, and strengthen graduate programs in fields including STEM
• Tackle workplace discrimination and harassment keeping so many women, especially women of color, from earning equal pay or fully realizing their professional goals

PRO-AMERICAN-WORKER TAX AND TRADE STRATEGY

• Take aggressive trade enforcement actions against China or any other country seeking to undercut American manufacturing through unfair practices, including currency manipulation, anti-competitive dumping, state-owned company abuses, or unfair subsidies
• Coordinated effort to pressure the Chinese government and other trade abusers to follow the rules and hold them to account when they do not
• Confront foreign efforts to steal American intellectual property
• Address state-sponsored cyber espionage against American companies
• Set forth clear demands and specific consequences if China’s government does not cease cyber espionage
• Develop new sanctions authorities against Chinese firms which steal U.S. technology,which will cut them off from accessing the U.S. market and financial system
• Establish a “claw-back” provision to force a company to return public investments and tax benefits when they close down jobs here and send them overseas
• Apply carbon adjustment fee against countries who are failing to meet their Paris Climate commitments
• Reverse tax policies that encourage outsourcing
• End incentives in the Trump tax giveaway that allow multinationals to dramatically lower taxes on income earned overseas and allow the largest, most profitable companies to pay no tax at all
• Confront global tax secrecy and avoidance, taking on individuals and businesses that stash their profits in tax havens to avoid paying their fair share
• Tighten anti-inversion rules that Obama-Biden put in place and which Trump has sought to weaken
• Support strong and independent trade unions here in the United States and in every one of our trading partners
• Enforce existing labor provisions and aggressively push for strong and enforceable labor provisions in any trade deal his administration

BRING BACK CRITICAL SUPPLY CHAINS

• Never again face shortages of critical products such as medical equipment when confronting a national crisis.
• Put Americans to work making critical products, from medical equipment and supplies to semiconductors and communications technology, here in the United States
• Close critical U.S. supply chain gaps by immediately directing a comprehensive and ongoing process to evaluate and protect key U.S. supply chains, starting in the first
• Leverage federal buying, including the Defense Production Act, BARDA, and federal procurement, to make sure that we make critical products in America
• Change the tax code to eliminate the incentives for pharmaceutical and other companies to move production overseas and establish new incentives for companies to make critical products in the U.S
• Rebuild critical stockpiles, ensure adequate surge manufacturing capacity in times of crisis, and regularly review supply chain vulnerabilities
• Work with allies to reduce their dependence on competitors like China while modernizing international trade rules to secure U.S. and allied supply chains
submitted by backpackwayne to JoeBiden [link] [comments]

THROW YOUR FD's in FDS

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down:
https://preview.redd.it/frmtdk8e9hk51.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c0ff12539e0b2f9dbfda13d0565c5ce2b6f8f1a

https://preview.redd.it/6axdb6lh9hk51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af1673272a5a2d8df28f60f4707e948a00e5ff1
FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp
https://preview.redd.it/yo71y6qj9hk51.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9414bdaa03c06114ca052304a26fae2773c3e45

FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:

https://preview.redd.it/oxaa1wel9hk51.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d60d2518980360c403364f7150392ab83d07d7
So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%
https://preview.redd.it/e4trju3p9hk51.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6bee15f836c47e73121054ec60459f147d353e

EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.
https://preview.redd.it/yl7f58tr9hk51.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=68906b9ecbcf6d886393c4ff40f81bdecab9e9fd

P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.

https://preview.redd.it/4mqw3t4t9hk51.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d719f4913883b044c4150f11b8732e14797b6d
Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016
https://preview.redd.it/lt34avzu9hk51.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3742ed87cd1c2ccb7a3d3ee71ae8c7007313b2b

Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.
https://preview.redd.it/fliirmpx9hk51.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=1216eddeadb4f84c8f4f48692a2f962ba2f1e848

SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares
I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
submitted by WannabeStonks69 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Sep/23/2020 news: \\ education reforms: Armenian language \\ liberated Anvakh outpost \\ MFAs clash \\ Armenia-Saudi relations \\ job & salary stats \\ real estate grows \\ EU sends $ \\ BHK officials \\ Amulsar activists \\ police & cadastre reforms \\ mask ads \\ Yerevan vs illegal construction

"the importance of the newly liberated Anvakh outpost"

The govt released a video: in July, without a single shot, Armenian soldiers took the [Anvakh] position that was under Azeri control. It has long been a big security threat to nearby residents of Armenian Movses village. Although this position is within Armenia, Azeris attacked it but were thrown back.
Why is Baku taking the loss of this position so painfully?
First. This has left an important Azeri outpost on nearby Mt. Kharadash vulnerable because the only road that leads to it is under Armenian observation; it's right next to the new Armenian position.
This Azeri outpost on Mt. Karadash, which is now isolated, is very important for Azerbaijan because it's the tallest point that oversees several regions in Azeri Tovuz province, and Armenian Chinari village.
Second. There is a growing nationalist movement in Azerbaijan, and since Aliyev couldn't retake the lost position, it damages his reputation. The Azeri govt has fallen in their own trap that they set by making militaristic threats for years.
https://youtu.be/u-afISbc2vA
https://factor.am/285974.html

Azeri media is accused of word game / MFA Lavrov

Armenian MFA says: // Russian MFA Lavrov made a "standard" comment about the Karabakh negotiations, the 5 regions, etc. Azeri media twisted his words and presented them in a one-sided way. //
Russian MFA later told reporters to read their direct quote instead of its interpretation by a third party [Azerbaijan].
https://factor.am/286099.html , https://factor.am/286136.html

Armenophobia in Turkish newspapers

Hrant Dink foundation examined articles written by 500 Turkish newspapers in 2019. They found 5,515 instances of hate speech towards 80 minorities.
Armenians were the primary target with 803 instances, followed by Syrians with 760, Greeks with 754.
Yeni Akit, Yeniçağ Diriliş Postası were the worst offenders.
https://www.azatutyun.am/a/30853923.html

will the relations with Saudi Arabia normalize? / Signals sent / Middle East expert talks Turkey-Saudi-Armenia relations / Salman's Vision 2030

Azerbaijan, Turkey, Yemen, and... Saudi Arabia? These are the Asian counties without diplomatic relations with Armenia. Saudis are among those who won't befriend Armenia due to the Artsakh conflict for the sole reason that Azerbaijan is a Muslim state.
However, Saudis sent congratulations to Armenia on Independence Day on Monday. At first King Salman, then the Defense Minister. They wished "progress and prosperity" to Armenian people.
This is the second time they've done so. The first message was in 2018. The mutual trade remains low, however, at "few hundred thousand dollars a year."
 
Economist and Gulf states expert Minas Hanskehean explains: there is a significant and sharp shift in Saudi foreign affairs in favor of Armenia. There is a geopolitical confrontation between Turkey and Saudi. Erdogan wants to revive Ottoman "rules" and present himself as the Sunni leader, but Saudis don't like this.
Saudis had good relations with Qatar, then Turkey sent soldiers to Qatar.
When I was teaching economics to Saudi students in Riyadh in 2015, at the time, Turkey was viewed as a great, successful, and a model state. Then it all changed in front of my eyes. Riyadh's mayor directly instructed Sheikhs not to invest in Turkey because "Turkey is robbing you on daily basis." The most popular state-run newspapers would print anti-Turkish articles daily.
 
This isn't the only reason why Saudis want to normalize relations with Armenia now. It's part of their new strategy to make new friends, including in the Caucasus. They subsidized tourism to Georgia; it would cost Saudi citizens as little as $300 to travel there.
Saudis will celebrate their national day on September 23rd. Armenia should not only send congratulations but also an invitation for Saudi MFA or the Prince to visit Armenia.
The Armenian diaspora is very small; around 300 people. Mostly migrated from Syria, Lebanon, other Gulf states, and a very few gold experts and teachers from Armenia.
 
There is rapid social progress in the country. Prince Muhammad bin Salman wants to change the public mentality. It wasn't just allowing women to drive that they have done lately. It's part of their "Vision 2030" which also envisions Arabia without oil.
They want to dedicate land size of Armenia to develop tourism. They spend astronomical sums to import food, but our products aren't in their market. We should improve relations and establish a trade office in Riyadh.
https://www.civilnet.am/news/2020/09/22/Սաուդյան-Արաբիան-փոխում-է-Հայաստանի-հանդեպ-նախկին-քաղաքականությունը/395710
https://www.civilnet.am/news/2020/09/22/Սաուդյան-Արաբիան-երկրորդ-անգամ-շնորհավորեց-Հայաստանի-Անկախության-տոնը/395681
Tags: #SaudiArabia

China's new embassy in Armenia

"China wants to strengthen relations with Armenia," said president Sarkissian who was invited to the newly built Chinese embassy, which is the largest in the region. He discussed technology and science cooperation with China.
https://youtu.be/Gb_J47DI_z8?t=60
Photos: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028521.html

U.S. company wants to build a global center for technology solutions in Armenia

High-Tech Minister Arshakyan met the American SADA Systems founder Hovik Safoyan, who wants to utilize Armenian tech talent. Details about the project will be revealed soon.
"This is like fresh air, a new approach that has not existed before. The government sends a signal that Armenia is not a country for charity, but a center for creating new companies and opportunities through mutually beneficial cooperation," said the founder.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028520.html

how post-Soviet dictators prepare their sons as next leaders

Russian blogger Varlamov made a video about how dictators of Belarus, Azerbaijan, etc. involve their sons in politics and slowly prep them as their successors.
The video mentions how BKH leader Gagik Tsarukyan gave 4 white lions as a gift to Nikolay Lukashenko (son of Alexander Lukashenko), how Ilham Aliyev changed Azerbaijani law to promote his family's power and how he "advertises" his son Heydar, how Tajikistan's dictator's son was recently elected as the Parliament speaker, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZG0h0q76YA

speaking of Gagik Tsarukyan...

His "voter buying and financial crimes" trial was supposed to be today but he didn't show up "despite being notified". The judge could have continued the trial without him but he chose to postpone it until September 25th.
(There is a big opposition rally on October 8th and the ruling QP party earlier accused Tsarukyan of trying to match the rally date with his trial for more "impact".)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028516.html

BHK MP Naira Zohrabyan's interview w/Russian outlet

Lragir writes: // BHK MP Zohrabyan is complaining that "Vestnik Kavkaza" Russian-language outlet twisted her words. She had to call them to demand a correction. "Is Zohrabyan even aware of this outlet's anti-Armenian record?"
In the interview, the MP also told the outlet that it's the Pashinyan administration who caused a deadlock in the Karabakh peace process and that it has no vision for resolving the conflict. This was actively used as propaganda by Azeri media. //
https://www.lragir.am/2020/09/23/580702/

police arrests environmental activists after fight

Police report says: // we got a call about a big fight in Gndevaz (not far from Amulsar, where Lydian wants to mine gold). The environmental Activists berated miners who expressed willingness to mine in Amulsar. Mamas were cussed.
Both sides gathered near Gndevaz to "talk". It escalated into a 40-minute physical and verbal fight.
One of the Activists then threw a rock at the oncoming car's windshield and broke it. His friends followed suit. Items were gathered as evidence. Three Activists are under arrest. Stay calm and respect others' rights. //
https://factor.am/285924.html

journalists criticize a court ruling / "bad precedence"

A group of media outlets: // Lori TV reporter was assaulted in 2017 while documenting how construction crews were laying asphalt under the rain.
The court verdict to acquit the suspects [due to lack of evidence and statue of limitation] is disappointing. They had twisted the journalists' arms, punched her, and deleted the footage. This verdict sets a bad precedence. //
The journalist will appeal the verdict.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/196417
https://factor.am/285963.html

Armenian State University of Economics board

... decided to suspend classes until their acting-rector Diana Galoyan is officially approved by the govt as a permanent rector.
The previous rector was forced to resign after an Education Ministry agency found plagiarism in his doctoral dissertation. His replacement, Diana Galoyan, was also caught with plagiarism, but another Education Ministry agency overruled those plagiarism findings to give her a green light.
Her approval process hasn't been finalized yet. The university wants it done ASAP because they like her and "she is apolitical and independent."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028544.html

police reforms

Recently the govt passed a bill to create a new police division with better-trained officers, better equipment, uniform, etc.
Someone has to teach those recruits. The future teachers are currently being taught how to teach the recruits. They are being aided by the U.S., EU, UN, and OSCE.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028542.html

real estate market is reviving

Property transactions dropped during the pandemic's uncertainty and hardship. Looks like it's active again.
Cadastre Committee chief: +6.3% YoY property transactions in August. The lifting of physical restrictions helped the rise. +39% in rural areas. +7% in provincial cities. Yerevan had fewer transactions, however. The prices are -1%.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028530.html

reforming the online property database system

Cadastre Committee will revamp the website and provide easier access to property locations. The street naming scheme will abide by the same rule so you won't come across a difficulty with finding "Khachatur Abovyan" but not "K. Abovyan".
More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028545.html

COVID stats

+2256 tested. +220 infected. +350 healed. 268322 tested. 3617 active.
Artsakh president's spokesman David Babayan is infected.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028499.html , https://armtimes.com/hy/article/196404

mask-promoting ads

The govt has purchased ad space on 40 billboards for 1 month to display ads that promote the wearing of a mask.
https://news.am/arm/news/603710.html

Norq Hospital employees to be rewarded

Norq infections hospital played a major role against COVID. They didn't receive special rewards on September 21st, unlike some of their colleagues. They sent a complaint letter to the govt.
The govt responded saying over 100 Norq Infections doctors will soon receive the awards, in addition to 12 who got it earlier.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028533.html , https://factor.am/285909.html

Artsakh sends gifts to the U.S.

Medical products made in Artsakh were donated to the Chevy Chase surgical center in Los Angeles, which has a history of helping the Artsakh population.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028539.html

Asian Development bank will provide $2m aid

... against the COVID fight.
https://factor.am/286126.html

Europe will provide $35m aid

... to reform the judicial system.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028575.html

Europe will give another $35m aid

This one is for overcoming economic difficulties caused by COVID.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028577.html

IRS provides job and wage numbers

There were 618,000 taxpaying jobs as of August, which is up 5,000 from last month, and up 13,400 from last year.
Salary-per-job-position went from $390/mo to $420/mo.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028538.html

Yerevan is being sued by ex-oligarch Lfik

Mayor Marutyan has been recently forcing ex-officials to free public lands that they "illegally occupied" with "illegal construction".
Ex-HHK businessman Samvel "Lfik Samo" Aleksanyan is now suing the capital to cancel one such decision that affects his structure on Շրջանային փողոց.
https://factor.am/285981.html

new bill could end the legalization of bootleg roof extensions

Those disgusting-looking things that people build on their apartment complex building roofs for "extra room"... currently they can be legalized.
A draft bill by Justice Ministry could keep them illegal.
Interview with an architect: https://armtimes.com/hy/article/196250

education reforms / Armenian language

The opposition ARF, BHK, HHK, Hayreniq are against the upcoming education reforms and have accused the Education Ministry of anti-Armenian conduct and "destroying traditional values, Armenian language, History, etc."
Education Ministry: // the proposed reform will increase Armenian Language class hours from 650 to 718 in Elementary, from 850 to 863 in Middle, and from 500 to 571 in High school. //
The reform bill is still open for suggestions on the govt website.
https://www.e-draft.am/projects/2560/about
More about the bill: https://armtimes.com/hy/article/196356

Armenian Language & Armenology classes

... are now being subsidized by the Education Ministry in twice as many foreign educational institutes, per 2019 reforms.
10 schools and universities in 8 countries are receiving financing to teach Armenian language, history, and culture.
The first-ever joint Armenology research was subsidized with two European institutes.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028498.html

birth registration reforms / less runaround for parents

The Justice Ministry reformed the law about issuing a birth certificate. Beginning in March, seven birth clinics enrolled in a new program to establish one unified office on their premises that will provide several services such as birth certificate, child aid enrollment, paternity certificate, etc.
The program will expand in provinces soon. It has already helped 3.7k out of 5.3k babies born in Yerevan since March.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028491.html

Le Dîner de Cons / now in theaters near you

Armenian-French producer Francis Veber created movie classics such as Dinner With Idiot (The Dinner Game), Խաղալիքը, Ձախորդները, Հայրիկները.
On the scale of 0-10, zero is the chance you haven't seen at least one of them. But why not watch a performance in person?
Vanadzor's drama theater will perform The Dinner With Idiot, directed by Sargis Manukyan. He believes the public needs some comedy after the pandemic.
More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1028492.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Veber.
 
You've read 2105 words.

Disclaimer & Terminology

1) The accused are innocent until proven guilty in the court of law, even if they sound guilty.
2) Currency in Armenian ֏ unless specified otherwise.
3) NSS/SIS/SOC = law enforcement agencies. QP = Civil Contract Party. LHK = Bright Armenia Party. BHK = Prosperous Armenia Party. HHK = Republican Party. ARF = Armenian Revolutionary Federation Party
4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Idontknowmuch: PART 1 ; PART 2 ; PART 3 ; PART 4 ; PART 5.
5) ARCHIVE of older posts by Armeniapedia.
submitted by ar_david_hh to armenia [link] [comments]

DDDD - The 2010-2020 Liquidity-Fueled Asset Bubble

DDDD - The 2010-2020 Liquidity-Fueled Asset Bubble
For this week's DDDD (data-driven DD), I'll be going more in-debt depth about a post I made a month ago, where I showed evidence about the stock market being in a bubble, and what might happen in the near future to equity prices. I'm not talking about the recent rise in equity prices during April, which was also driven by increased liquidity in combination with retail investors bringing valuations to euphoria-level prices; this has been going on since at least 2010. Today, I'll be going in-depth about how we go into this bubble in asset prices, fueled by ten years of unsustainable increases in liquidity from the Fed, as well as everything you've never wanted to know about what liquidity is, how rich people in corporations store wealth, how money works, how securities are valued, the Monetarist school of economic thought, inflation, with a sprinkle of differential equations! By the time you're done reading this, you'll be ready to pass the economics portion of your next CFA level III exam.
What “Liquidity” means
We all know that since the stock market started crashing, the Fed has lowered their interest rates and started the regime of “infinite quantitative easing”. This was in an effort to provide liquidity to effectively everyone. What does this all mean, and how does this help the economy, why did the stock market go up because of this, and how long can this liquidity pumping last?
First, what is liquidity? It’s the availability of liquid assets in an organization or economy. A liquid asset is an asset that is easily convertible to cash at the market price. An easy way to look at the liquidity of an asset is looking at the bid-ask spread of it. A treasury bond, for example, is very liquid and widely considered to be a “cash equivalent”, or in other words, the same as cash. In fact, for organizations / people that hold a vast amount of wealth, they would probably hold more of their wealth in treasuries than cash (or bank deposits). We’ll go over that later. In contrast, a house is fairly illiquid. It might take months to find a buyer, may have high transaction fees if you go through an agent, and the fair value of it is uncertain.
Okay, so how does the Fed’s policies affect liquidity? In general, a central bank will either be adopting an expansionary or contractionary monetary policy, meaning a goal of increasing or decreasing the supply of “money” in the system. A key distinction here to point out is that “money” does not necessarily mean “cash”. There’s actually several official definitions and calculations of what counts as “money”, but all of them go with the notion of anything that can be considered “cash equivalents”, like bank deposits. This means that the Fed doesn’t actually need to physically print more money (i.e. increasing M0) to increase the money supply and have the same effect. To help explain this, let’s go through how money is created and the most common mechanisms the Fed uses to increase the money supply.
How the Fed creates liquidity
Most money is created by banks in the form of debt. Banks create money by accepting deposits from customers, and leveraging that money to create loans. Suppose you decide to deposit $1000 into his checking account. By law, up until last month when the Fed decided to take extreme measures to combat deflation, banks were required to hold a certain fraction of their deposits in cash or deposits in the bank’s own account in the Fed, who acts as the bank for banks. The idea is that on average, depositors won’t be withdrawing most of their money from their accounts anytime soon, so instead of having the liquidity sit idly at the bank or the Fed, it can be recycled back into the economy through loans and other financial securities, which can also become a revenue source for the bank.
How does the Fed play into this? They can influence the overnight rate, which is the interest rate banks lend money to each other overnight to make sure they meet their reserve requirements. In other words, banks with a surplus of money over their legally required reserve requirement will lend money to banks with a shortage at that rate. This will naturally affect the amount of loans banks give and act as a floor to the interest rate available to consumers, as it wouldn’t make sense for banks to make loans at a lower interest rate than what they would receive from loaning to other banks on an overnight basis. The Fed influences this rate by giving banks an option to borrow from them directly, usually at a premium of the “target rate”, as a last resort to prevent a liquidity crunch. In this case, the bank will need to put up collateral, usually Treasury Securities (although this has also changed recently), for this overnight loan. In other words, the bank sells an acceptable collateral to the Fed with the agreement that the bank will repurchase that collateral for a slightly higher price the next day. This mechanism is called a “repurchase agreement” or repo and is the primary way the Fed indirectly controls the liquidity in the economy. What can the Fed do after this rate reaches zero (aside from going to negative rates like Japan / Europe)?

Fed Funds Rate
The other way the Fed can influence the money supply is by performing Open Market Operations, where they directly buy US treasuries for cash; this is also known as expanding the Fed’s balance sheet. Recently, this has expanded to many other things, including junk bonds. Technically, the Fed itself doesn’t directly buy these bonds, since they’re not able to take on credit risk. Instead, the Fed created a taxpayer-funded Special Purpose Vehicle, whom it then lends money to for bond purchases. So when Congress passed the CARES Act, it provided the Fed $454 billion, which they used to effectively establish an organization that will use the Fed to lever it up to $4 Trillion to buy whatever debt instruments they want, and lose up to $454 billion. How does this affect things?
Fed Balance Sheet
Where the real money is
We’ve all heard that there’s massive wealth inequality in the United States, with the top 1% holding over 40% of all wealth in 2019. Now, imagine if you were managing $1 Billion of assets, how would you store them? Doing what most normal people do, depositing into a bank account is dumb for many reasons. Other than the fact that you’re only guaranteed $100,000 from FDIC per account if your bank happens to be insolvent, your $1 Billion is going to lose about $20 Million in real value due to inflation. So what do they store their wealth in? Stocks, Bonds (Fixed Income) and some Cash / Cash Equivalents (mostly Treasuries).
Assets held by high net worth individuals
Fixed Income and Treasuries are also how most public companies also store their extra capital. Let’s look at Apple’s balance sheet in their most recent 10-K as an example.
Apple Balance Sheet, Fiscal Year 2019
Breakdown of Cash & Securities owned by Apple
Out of Apple’s $339 Billion of assets in 2019, they had $205 Billion of them in financial instruments. Of that amount, the relevant parts are that they had $12 Billion in actual cash, $50 Billion in government securities, and $85 Billion in corporate bonds. Also they own $14 Billion of other people’s mortgages, cool.
So, what happens when a bunch of businesses are now forced to shut operations, your BBB-rated $F or $M bond gets downgraded, and you’re no longer sure which businesses will or won’t go bankrupt? Or what if you’re a business that suddenly finds yourself needing cash to pay your expenses in the next few months? You sell your them, and that’s exactly what everyone did in March. Cash and Cash Equivalents are now King.
BAA bond yields, 2019 - 2020
DXY, Daily
Everyone is dumping their bonds, some of which aren’t even getting any bids when being sold, even briefly going into negative territory, and $DXY (representing the value of USD compared to other reserve currencies) skyrockets. Add on the fact that a substantial amount of non-US debt is denominated in US dollars, meaning governments and corporations around the world are trying to get their hands on USD to cover their debt payments with reduced revenue. The skyrocketing corporate bond yields make it virtually impossible for companies, even the ones with strong balance sheets, to raise their much-needed cash to survive through bond issuance.
This is where the Fed steps in. Their job is to prevent deflation at all costs, and a strengthening $DXY is a sign that this might happen since that means it’s a lot cheaper to import things. In fact we saw a 0.4% decline in CPI in March, although the collapse of oil prices also probably affected it. The Fed then uses their SPV to buy bonds to stabilize the market and give investors confidence that they won’t be the bag holders. They also use something called swap lines with foreign central banks to improve liquidity between currencies to help with the foreign debt problem. This causes bond prices to go back up (and yields to go back down), bailing out everyone that would have lost money from the crash.
Now here’s the kicker - this barely helps with fighting against deflation. Inflation is measured by comparing the weighted average of prices for a basket of goods, representing the things an average consumer buys in a given year, and does not include financial assets. Buying bonds and treasuries and lowering interest rates will only indirectly prevent deflation by preventing a complete freeze in lending by banks, and maybe by the wealth effect (i.e. becoming poorer will lead rich people to spend less money). Instead, what we see is another sort of inflation - the inflation of asset prices.
How liquidity inflated asset prices
The Fed pumping liquidity into the system is nothing new. Since the 1980s, the Fed funds rate has been steadily decreasing towards zero, causing treasury and bond yields to follow it.
AAA bond yields, 1980 - 2020
Investing is all about risk over reward. In general, the US treasury is considered to be the safest possible investment (risk free), and the yield of a 3-month US Treasury bill is the floor of all yields (risk free rate). In theory, all other investments are riskier and thus have a higher reward for that risk. Thus, as the risk free rate goes down, investors now need to take on more risk to have the same reward, and financial instruments with the same risk will have lower rewards (yields), bringing down bond yields. This also means that equities that carry the same risk will also have lower “yields”.
Now, “yield” in equities is a bit complicated. One way to calculate them is to just use the dividend yield. However, in the past few years companies realized it’ll be more tax-advantaged to do stock buybacks instead of paying dividends. So, although not exactly the same concept, earnings over price would be the best metric to look at the equivalent of equity “yields”, or the reward investors will accept for the risk of investing in the stock.
Shiller PE Ratio
There’s a lot more variation here because “risk” and “reward” in equities is much more variable and harder to assess compared to fixed income, but we can see that P/E ratios have been on the rise since the 1980s, meaning investors are generally willing to take on a lower reward for the same amount of risk in the stock market.
How much longer can this last? Fed funds rates are already effectively stuck near zero; even in the “booming” economy that we’ve had the past decade the Fed was barely able to raise the repo rate past 2% before the stock market started crashing in late 2018 and was never able to meaningfully unwind their balance sheet from all the quantitative easing they did in the Great Recession. Now they’ve put their liquidity injection program on steroids with infinite QE. They’ve reduced the risk of corporate bonds by saying they will be the bag holder if things go bad.
The key takeaway here is that increased liquidity from the Fed causes inflation of asset prices. Hopefully, this isn’t new news to anyone, but now you hopefully understand why this happens.
How We Got Here - Inflation Targeting and Monetarism
So how did we get here? Why has the Fed pumped so much liquidity to the economy? My own personal opinion is that this bubble was caused by the Fed’s indiscriminate inflation targeting. Since 2012, the Federal Reserve’s primary objective has been to have a target of a 2% inflation rate, an increase from the 1.5% target inflation from the early 2000s until 2012. The whole idea of inflation targeting is actually pretty new, with it being first discussed by the Fed in 1994, where it was debated extensively for multiple years on whether or not it would be a good idea, and it didn’t really get implemented until the early 2000s. Before then, the Fed just aimed for “price stability”.
Changes in CPI, 1950 - 2020
Okay, so what causes inflation, and how is it calculated? The inflation rate is usually calculated by measuring the changes in the CPI, or Consumer Price Index. CPI is an indexed weighted average basket of prices for goods and services that an average American household purchased for a given year. There’s also core CPI, which is the same concept but removes fuel and food from the equation, since they tend to be volatile.
There’s many theories out there about what drives inflation. One of the most popular ones out there, and the one I personally believe, is Quantity Theory of Money. The origin of QTM is actually pretty ancient, first proposed by the mathematician Copernicus back in 1517, and has been accepted by economists ranging from Milton Friedman, Keynes, and even Karl Marx, although they all disagreed on which variable in the equation should be emphasized. Keynes’ believed that it was determined by aggregate demand (Q), Marx believed it was determined by the amount of goods in circulation (also Q), and the Monetarist’s view led by Friedman, is that what determines inflation is the quantity of money in circulation (M), and can be controlled by the Fed. In other words, the Keynesian approach to controlling the economy was to focus on aggregate demand, usually through fiscal stimulus, while the Monetarist approach is to focus on the money supply.
Velocity of Money
In its mathematical form, let’s look at the simplified Equation of Exchange.
Equation of Exchange
In this equation,
M is the total nominal amount of money supply in the economy. As mentioned above “money” can mean different things, but in here let’s say it’s the M2 money supply, which is all cash, checking and savings deposits and money market securities.
V is the velocity of the M2 money supply, which is the average amount of times a dollar is used in a transaction in a time period within the economy.
P is the price level, which is basically CPI
Q is the real value of all expenditures in an economy. This is basically the same as GDP.
To see how this relates to inflation, we’re going to need to look at how the price changes with respect to time. Time to add some calculus to this to look at the first time-derivative of P.
Hand-written derivation of inflation from the Equation of Exchange
I hand-wrote this because I was too lazy to write this up on LaTeX. The usually cited version of this is to pretend velocity money is constant and not deal with calculus by using approximations for when changes are very small. This results in ΔP = ΔM – ΔY, which is what you’ll see in most ECON101 textbooks. The problem with this assumption is that velocity of money is not constant and this will not be reflected in long-term effects since this approximation only works for very small changes and neglects feedback loops.
Okay, so let’s look at my handwritten equation. If you can’t read math, what it says is that the inflation rate
  • Increases with the rate of change in the money supply
  • Increases with the rate of change in the velocity of money
  • Decreases with the rate of change in the GDP
  • Higher velocity of money amplifies the effects of changes in money supply
  • Higher money supply amplifies the effects of changes in money velocity
  • Higher price levels amplifies the effects of changes in GDP
  • Decreases in GDP amplifies all changes in inflation
Now, let’s take a look from the Fed’s perspective. This probably isn’t that reflective of the Fed’s actual decision making process but it’s one way of seeing how everything relates to each other, and all the other models (eg. IS-LM, AD-AS) basically lead towards a similar conclusion. The Fed wants to have a fixed inflation rate no matter what. It’s extremely hard for both the Fed and federal government to control behaviors of consumers, and how quickly they spend money they receive, so velocity of money is sort of just a given. GDP can somewhat be controlled by the governments through fiscal stimulus, by using deficits to fuel economic growth, although this isn’t sustainable if there’s no fundamental reason for increased productivity. As I mentioned previously, this is probably the case and what we’ve been looking at for the past decade was a period of debt-fueled economic growth, and we would have seen stagnation if the government hadn't grown deficits in the past decade.
From the Fed’s perspective the only thing it can control is money supply, but this usually needs to be done slowly and carefully. Dramatic changes in prices will amplify the effects of any GDP changes due to inflation, causing even more dramatic changes to price levels as well as decreased GDP due to economic uncertainty from unpredictable price levels - hyperinflation, or deflationary spiral. You also don’t want to suddenly massively increase your money supply because this will amplify any effects increased money velocity has on inflation. Increased inflation will also lead to less savings and more people spending money as soon as they receive it. Also hyperinflation. Mathematically, the equation stated above is a first-order differential equation on every variable, meaning it’s full of positive feedback - specifically positive feedback loops.
Real GDP, 1984 - 2020
Velocity of Money, 1960 - 2020
So what do we see happening since 2000?
  • Slightly declining secular GDP growth
  • A dramatic drop in the velocity of money from the 1997 peak of 2.2 per quarter to 1.3 in Q12020. The falling velocity of money is most likely attributed by the slow rise in income inequality in North America, and since rich people have a lower propensity to consume (i.e. every extra dollar, they will more likely invest / save it rather then spend it on consumption), this reduced the number of times dollars get spent.
Clearly, the inflationary effects of slower GDP growth is far exceeded by reduced velocity of money. This is actually usually the case, and it’s why you usually see deflation rather than inflation for most stagnating developed economies (eg. Europe and Japan). Because of positive feedback loops, when this happens, it’s very hard to escape and is called a deflationary spiral. To combat the deflationary pressure and maintain the same inflation rate as the 1990s, the only thing the Fed can do is increase monetary supply, using the mechanisms described.
Up until 2008, the primary mechanism was lowering interest rates, which inflates the money supply through lending. The new money supply, through loans, would be mostly issued for consumption, like a mortgage to buy a new house or a new car loan to buy a car. This will have the added benefit of increasing velocity of money because this new money supply is recycled into the economy. After 2008, the Fed had to find a new mechanism, with interest rates being permanently too close to zero to have any meaningful impact on the money supply to actually help anything, especially since most Fed board members think that negative interest rates are a bad idea. With quantitative easing, direct purchases of treasuries artificially lowers the yields of treasuries and makes bonds and equities relatively more attractive when looking at risk / reward, inflating prices of those securities. We’ve effectively reached 0% yield on the risk-free-rate during the last crisis, so the next logical step for the Fed was to buy other securities, like commercial paper and now bonds. Except, as shown earlier, the biggest holders of treasuries and bonds were actually corporations and high-net-worth individuals, who compared to regular people have a much lower propensity to consume, and would not at all address the lowering velocity of money. It also leads towards higher wealth inequality, as it inflates prices of those securities, and all other financial assets which are concentrated at the top corporations and individuals, which tends to be bad for velocity of money. In simplified terms, the increase in money supply goes towards the people who already held a lot of wealth. This is probably why we’re seeing a steep drop-off of money velocity after 2008, even after the economy has recovered.
Velocity of Money in an Pandemic
A pandemic and lockdown brings a whole new level of challenges in maintaining this delicate balance. Suddenly, all the variables are changing rapidly with the economic shock. Although we don’t have definitive data on this yet, it’s pretty clear that this lockdown will see a sudden and dramatic decrease in money changing hands. At the same time, we’re going to see the biggest sudden drop in GDP in history - at the scale of the Great Depression but occurring in the span of months. To add to the shit show, oil prices are in an absolute mess, adding even more downwards pressure to CPI. The Fed is now trying to fine tune this economic machine to balance. The positive feedback loops mean that if they’re not able to expand the supply of money enough, we’ll quickly see a deflationary spiral. If they do too much, we quickly get into hyperinflation. As the world’s reserve currency, and having the vast majority of countries in the world being short dollars, with debt denominated in USD, it’ll be virtually impossible to see hyperinflation.
The Fed has pretty much maxed out on everything they could have possibly done to keep inflation at 2% by increasing the money supply using tools they’re allowed to use. Interest rates and the risk free rate have been near 0% since 2008, and bond yields are already at unrealistic levels for the amount of risk they have, resulting in a skyrocketing increase in equities. Since none of these actually address the velocity of money issue, which has likely sharply decreased since March, we’re probably going to head towards a deflationary spiral. What does this mean for equity prices? We’ve seen this exact scenario play out in Japan during the 1990s and parts of Europe in the 2010s, and counterintuitively, we see an L shaped recovery economically and a collapse of equity prices. I already talked about this extensively so you can read that if you want to know more about it.
What was my point again (TLDR)?
Wow that was long. Let’s go over everything in here
  • Money is usually created from banks issuing credit.
  • Fed influences credit issuance with overnight repo rates and open market operations
  • HNWIs and corporations store a lot of wealth in treasuries and bonds as a vehicle to preserve wealth.
  • Everyone was trying to get their hands on dollars in March, especially internationally where many debts are denominated in USD
  • Fed’s actions lowers the “risk free rate”, which is used in valuations of securities. This changes the risk / reward desired by investors for other securities and causes those prices to increase. They’ve artificially deflated yields (i.e. reward / risk) of bonds in March, inflating equity prices even more.
  • Since the 2000s, the Fed has started targeting a specific interest rate.
  • Velocity of money, caused by increasing wealth inequality in individuals and businesses in the US, has been steadily decreasing since the 2000s.
  • Decreased money velocity, with stagnating GDP, means the Fed has to increase the money supply with liquidity to keep inflation at the desired level. Positive feedback loops means that they need an increasing amount of liquidity to have the same effect.
  • Increasing liquidity through money supply increases wealth inequality and decreases velocity of money.
  • Even though this has been happening since the 2000s, a lockdown just accelerates this process.
  • Fed probably can’t do anything else to stop a deflationary spiral, which is where we’re headed.
  • Japan and parts of Europe had something similar happen a few years ago, and it didn’t end up well.
  • L-shaped recovery and a stock market collapse
  • SPY 12/16/2022 175p
I just want to know if I should buy SPY calls or puts
See my short term thesis from two weeks ago (tldr - SPY will go sideways between 293 - 274 for a few weeks), and last week's post, where I talked about the declining momentum of the bullish sentiment (tldr - 293 (+- 2%) was the top, going to see a reversal soon). I'll also be updating this post with my live thoughts / moves for this week, for those who care and like reading about what other people do. For this week overall, I'm looking for re-confirmation of my thesis with the following events happening
  1. SPY going back down after reaching 293 (+- 2%)
  2. SPY falling past 278, which is the 50% Fib level where we reversed off over a week ago. This will open up 274 and form a double-top bearish signal.
  3. Daily MACD crossover
EDITS - Live thoughts
5/10 10:30PM - /ES at 2945, near the upper limit allowed by my thesis. 15m and 1h are overbought on RSI, so expecting it to not move past this level and move back down to ~2930 when market opens tomorrow.
5/11 2AM - /ES back right underneath 2930 after reaching 2950 (200D MA). Looking good for my short-term thesis so far
5/11 Market Open - SPY opened at 290, reversing off of 293 from Friday. /ES hourly has a bearish MACD on 1H so we might so SPY slowly go down below 289 today. If that happens my short-term thesis is re-confirmed.
5/11 1PM - SPY back at 293. 15m 1h 5h MACD are all bullish for SPY, although 15m RSI is getting towards oversold. Getting a bit nervous about my thesis, but we'll have more conclusive ideas about where the trend is heading during power hour today.
5/11 3:50PM - Still at 293. Basically moved sideways. 1D, 4H, and 1H MACD is bullish but 15M is bearish. Clearly 293-295 is really strong resistance. Thesis still not confirmed, and technicals make it look like we might move towards the upside. Still holding all my bearish positions but tomorrow will tell us what the trend will be for the next few weeks. > 295 = we're headed to at least 300 and my thesis is disproved. < 289 = we're heading to 278 at least, if we have a daily MACD crossover during that time then we're probably not seeing 293 again.
5/11 4PM - Closed right below 292.50. Saw a massive candle at 3:59PM bringing us back down with with a nominal value of $85M; some big fund is calling this the top and started dumping their holdings - very bearish. Futures might be red tonight
5/12 12AM - /ES back at 290, bearish reversal right at 293 again, reconfirming resistance level. 1H and 4H MACD is back to bearish. I don't think we'll be retesting 293 anytime soon. Might see a red day tomorrow; if that happens it re-confirms the thesis from two weeks ago that 293 was going to be the top.
5/12 Market Open - Opened right back at 293. Massive pump overnight, supposedly because of higher oil prices. More waiting.
5/12 1:30PM - Same story as the past few days. Price bouncing between strong resistance at 293, and what looks like strong support at 290. 1H MACD in SPY crossed over this morning, indicating that bears are winning this fight during the daytime too. Still holding and waiting for thesis confirmation.
5/12 3:50 - At 288. Thesis reconfirmed. Next stop is the 50% Fib retracement (278 - 279), expecting to see that by Friday
5/12 Market Close - Closed at around 286.50. Volume and price action at the last few minutes was insane, institutional money is starting to pull out (expecting DIX to fall today). After hours SPY is already at 285. Bears have won this battle, crash I talked about last week has started.
5/12 6PM - /ES is now extremely oversold on 1H. It's going to need to consolidate (i.e. move sideways, go up a bit) overnight before it can go down even more sustainably. It looks like we've gotten a MACD crossover in both 1H, 4H, and 1D charts on /ES. The 1D MACD crossover is VERY significant and means that the next month will be controlled by the bears, similar to how a MACD cross-over in late March meant bulls control April.
/ES Daily
Bearish MACD crossover
This means that we're probably going to also see a bearish MACD crossover in SPY tomorrow as well, unless futures miraculously recover overnight. Look at when the last time the red line was above the blue line. This is going to be a huge signal to all traders and institutions to get out.
5/13 2AM - 1hr RSI is back to reasonable levels and can start going down again on /ES. If we open below 285, which is what it looks like will happen tomorrow, we would have gapped down below the 285 support level and have a trading range of 278 - 284 for tomorrow.
5/13 Market Open - Interesting market open, SPY was trading the opposite direction of /ES for a while. 285 was a key level that bears needed to gap-down below for bears to control the day. That didn't quite happen. Also, 1H RSI is getting towards oversold, and 15m is very oversold. Might see a slightly bullish or sideways day today as price needs to consolidate. 1D MACD also crossed over, so we might see that have a bearish effect on prices since that will be a strong signal to alot of traders, institutions, and algos. I have part 3) of my list needed to confirm my thesis checked.
Big news headline today is Powell coming out and saying some very bearish things. Basically saying we're still not out of trouble yet, can still see an economic depression, and Congress needs to pass a stage 4 stimulus. This can be a signal that the Fed's out of bullets and now it's up to Congress to pass fiscal stimulus.
5/13 Noon - Looks like selling action has resumed after a bit of consolidation this morning. Very bearish as many funds are now going to want to exit after the MACD crossover, and Powell's comments driving fear about the state of the economy. Could see bottom of the range (278) by end of day if this sentiment keeps up despite oversold RSI in 1H and 15M
5/13 3:20PM - Power Hour: Currently sitting around 279.50. Bearish sentiment is so strong that it didn't care the oversold RSI at 15m and 1h through the entire day. We'll probably need to get to 278 before seeing any rebound. Expecting a close around the bottom of the trading range I had today (i.e. 278).
If anyone's bored and wanna laugh at something, watch Dave Portney's stream. He's a perfect representation of retail sentiment and what you should be inversing
5/13 3:50PM - Alot of people asking where we'll be at tomorrow. This one's harder to tell. On one side we see hella bearish sentiment as institutional money starts pulling out because of 1D MACD crossover. On the other side, 1H RSI has been oversold the entire day. Need this to go back to not oversold for me to be confident that we'll see another leg down. More likely than not we'll see a small green day tomorrow. Will need to see how futures act tonight to confirm. My strategy is to exit half my bearish positions at 274-278 and look for another entry. If we gap down that entire range, I'll hold.
5/13 Market Close - Made a mistake at my 3:20PM post. Looked closely and turns out we actually hit the 50% fib, exactly at 278.96 before rebounding. Going to probably be seeing consolidation tomorrow (278-285) again, followed by another drop on Friday maybe reaching 274 and checking all 3 things listed needed to confirm my short-term thesis. Again, for reasons mentioned above this prediction's way less certain especially because we already touched the 50% retracement and got a hard nope from it.
5/13 7PM - RSI in /ES is no longer oversold on any time frame and sufficiently recovered enough to drop lower. 1H MACD is about to cross again back to bullish. This will probably be rejected, and /ES is going to drop overnight again. We might not see that consolidation I mentioned earlier and instead gap down for SPY tomorrow. We'll find out in a few hours.
5/13 4AM - Bullish 1H MACD on /ES. Consolidation it is. Trading range for tomorrow 285 - 279. Much less confident about this one though.
5/14 Market Open - Opened right at 50% retracement. Might see consolidation today. Bearish sentiment still strong and alot of volume during so far so could still break through today depending on how this first hour goes. If we go below 278 in the next few min. 274-278.
5/14 9:50AM - Ok called it wrong from futures. Broke 278. Bearish sentiment is stronger than I expected. We're going to 274 today. All parts of my thesis is now re-confirmed and we have a double top pattern formed. Next week will be bloody.
5/14 11:20AM - That 278 break might have been a fake-out. Bulls are back in control. Bearish sentiment is strong but short term is turning bullish, with 15m chart back to bullish. We needed consolidation because RSI was oversold in 1H, and that was needed before another drop down. It's back out of oversold territory, so there's room to go to 274 now. Still a though call between consolidation and 274. I'm going to stick with 274, but I'm very unsure right now.
Clarification - I think we would be in consolidation until 3PM before we see more price action towards 274. Again, saying this with very little confidence
I also hit the Reddit word limit, which is appearently a thing, so I'll comment future updates
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Sep/16/2020 news: \\ education reforms: Minister & opposition locked in a fierce battle \\ Pashinyan about judges, COVID \\ irrigated lands \\ drivers in Russia \\ USA trade \\ sheep production \\ ozone & nature \\ paternity leave \\ FDIC insurance \\ doctors protest \\ Hrant Dink \\ cattle cave \\

major bolola happened today

Education Minister Harutyunyan files lawsuit over "defamatory fake news"

As part of the 2019-ongoing political campaign against Education Minister Harutyunyan, several "traditionalist" opposition figures circulated rumors that the Ministry plans to use խուժան school books containing questionable and expletive content for "sexual education".
The Ministry said the circulated book was unrelated to the upcoming education reforms, and that they have no such plans. That didn't stop BHK leader Tsarukyan from claiming "look at how Ministry is brainwashing our kids with perverted sexual stuff" during his recent speech to supporters.
 
Today the Education Minister Harutyunyan decided to file a defamation lawsuit against those who claimed he was distributing those books. "The financial compensation will be used to buy furniture for one of the kindergartens."
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195849

ARF holds protests against Minister

ARF resumed the 2019 rallies against Harutyunyan. He is accused of harming traditional values, language, church, poor management, etc.
https://factor.am/283965.html

the protests reach Parliament

LHK party took the protest to Parliament building by hanging an anti-Harutyunyan poster on the main floor, after receiving permission from Speaker Mirzoyan. LHK joins ARF and BHK with the demand for Harutyunyan's resignation.
Ruling QP MPs trolled the poster by taking a photo with it because it contains the ruling party's "make a step" slogan.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195866
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195876

Education Minister Harutyunyan fires back at critics / Discusses reforms

Minister Harutyunyan: // there are big reforms on the horizon, so certain political circles are concerned that the introduction of critical thinking in schools will take away their future "voter base".
Some "experts" who incorrectly characterized the history book reforms as "anti-Armenian" used to be fed by the former regime to write falsified materials that appeased the former regime. They've been cut off from the funding, so now they're upset. We involved many teachers and real experts during the development of the new curriculum.
 
the resignation calls
I won't meet activists whose only demand is my resignation. If there was a reason for my resignation I would do it in an instant. No such topic has been brought up during party talks.
I met the students who faced difficulties with new university admission rules, but unfortunately, some of them were influenced by political circles and had different motives behind complaints. I won't meet that specific group.
 
ruling MP's resignation
I haven't had discussions with [recently resigned QP MP and wrestler] Julfalakyan in months. [He resigned after having sports-related differences, allegedly with deputy Minister. Education Ministry includes Sports Ministry]. Julfalakyan could have used his right to raise a topic but we held 0 conversations.
 
the boxes
ARF gave me boxes so I could pack my personal items and leave. I could use those boxes to stuff them with materials about past corruption and send it back to ARF. [ARF responded saying the Minister only remembers about corruption when he's criticized.]
 
tuition aid?
We're currently discussing a possible COVID-related tuition subsidy for university students. We received a letter signed by 5,000 students yesterday. There might be a meeting with them soon.
 
teachers
So far we mass-tested 6,000 teachers before the school season. Only 1% had COVID. There will be unannounced visits to schools to make sure safety rules are respected.
 
school management
Schools will be governed differently after reforms. Multiple schools will be included in one network governed by one board. The number of board members will reduce so thousands of people won't have to travel for a board meeting. Board members will be retrained. They won't be under influence of certain groups as it was done in the past.
 
meddling in others' affairs
The opposition accuses us of pressuring others. Let me tell you a story. LHK MP1 calls and tells me to support a certain library director against protesters, while LHK MP2 later calls and says it's the protesters who are correct, and I should punish the library director.
Look up how many of my preferred candidates won seats in govt-funded organizations, in which the boards - mind you - were formed by our rules... not many did. For you it's a weakness, for me it's a strength.
 
science & unis
The reforms will allow better cooperation between universities and research institutes, independent activities for scientific organizations, creation of scientific consortia, postgraduate programs will be brought in line with European standards.
 
teacher shortage
Teachers who move to border or mountainous areas, where there is a shortage of tutors, will receive a 30% raise and other benefits.
 
more schools
We opened 60 new preschools as part of a plan to enroll 70% of 3-6yo kids by 2023.
37 new small schools will be built by 2021. We spent an unprecedented $4m in 2020. //
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195878
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027806.html
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027810.html
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027821.html
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195889
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027841.html
http://arka.am/en/news/society/armenia_to_implement_major_education_reforms_/
https://youtu.be/YRoelVkffZQ?t=15
Tag: #EducationReforms #ArayikHarutyunyan #bolola

Minister Harutyunyan goes full savage in Parliament / Tsarukyan & church rape

There was a Q&A in Parliament during which opposition BHK MPs accused Education Minister Harutyunyan of incompetence and damaging Armenian values and failed reforms.
At one point, Harutyunyan fired back by saying the new curriculum will help certain groups [BHK folks] better control their hormones and respect the church, so they won't rape women in church premises anymore.
Context: during USSR, the BHK leader Tsarukyan and his friends were convicted of raping a Russian tourist in an abandoned church. President Kocharyan's judge would later overturn the verdict after Tsarukyan became a business partner with the Kocharyan family.
 
BHK accused the Minister of inappropriate language because he referred to Tsarukyan and his friends as "a group of Kotayk residents with hormones". They said it was offensive because it targeted the entire Kotayk population.
The Minister responded saying it was directed towards a specific group and nothing to do with Kotayk as a whole.
 
Minister Harutyunyan displayed a 1998 խուժան book and accused opposition BHK of lying about him trying to introduce that book into the curriculum. "A complete lie, dear parents. Be vigilant and don't let them manipulate you. The reforms will benefit your children."
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195901

Pashinyan talks about Constitutional Court judges

"The Constitutional Court crisis is over", said Pashinyan in Parliament, a day after Parliament nominated 3 new judges. He criticized some groups for wanting to appoint [pro-governemnt or anti-Roboserj] partisan judges.
Pashinyan: // Some groups are upset because they wanted to see their folks in the court. Now they teach us about the revolution's values and how the new judges don't meet those values, as if we don't know what the values are. It's not a perfect court. The govt did its duties. //
Some of the aforementioned anti-Roboserj activists later complained about his harsh tone and told him to calm down.
 
Context: The 3 seats were vacated after a bill was passed that fired the judges who served terms longer than what the Constitution envisioned for new judges. This was a "compromise" solution by the government because it didn't remove all of the former regime's judges, and even kept HHK MP Tovmasyan in court.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/195913
https://news.am/arm/news/602526.html

deserted lands to get water

Choratan's new 3.7km irrigation network is under construction. Soon, the locals will turn the abandoned lands into figs, walnuts, and pineapple gardens.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195844

soldier dies in front lines

The second day of a shootout on the border, after Azeris tried to do engineering work. An Armenian contractor died today. An Azeri soldier was wounded yesterday.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195884

Russia will allow migrant drivers to use original licenses

Armenia had earlier asked Russia to allow migrants from EAEU member-states to use their home country licenses for driving jobs. Russia has agreed. They'll amend their law to make the exception.
Earlier, the only exception was if the driver came from a country where Russian was an official language. When the bill passes, the "EAEU" will become the second qualifier.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027890.html

trade with the United States

The govt met American colleagues to discuss trade cooperation, American laws/standards for imports, GSP trade system for Armenian businesses.
 
The trade with the U.S. rose by 48% in 2019, reaching $334m. Exports +13% ($54m), imports +57% ($280m).
 
Armenia exported metals, diamonds, alcohol, canned fruits, nuts, and berries.
Armenia imported cars, medical devices, rope and thread, poultry and meat, medicine.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027787.html

massive rise in sheep exports

Pashinyan: we exported +256% sheep in 1H. 41,000 small-sized cattle worth $3.4m. This is a direct result of our earlier programs. I continue to be convinced that cattle is one of our agricultural industry's most prospective branches. It's a great way to defeat poverty. Farmers should take advantage of govt subsidies by joining cooperatives.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195853

Artsakh will also develop its cattle industry

President Arayik: we'll soon import and distribute 10,000 Adilbay and Kalmikian sheep to our farmers. Experts say we can breed 500,000 sheep.
For comparison, today we have 70,000 less productive ones. The growth numbers cited by Pashinyan shows that we have a potential in Artsakh, too.
For the next 5 years, the govt will import and give the female sheep to farmers.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195881

Lydian meeting

Pashinyan met Amulsar gold miner Lydian's board member Jeffrey Coach to discuss the topic of suspended mining operations and environmental issues.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195893

Ozone layer is recovering

Ozone can be damaged by certain chemicals. The international community has taken steps to replace 99% of them. It'll take 100 years for the negative effects to fully disappear.
It's recovering, though. Armenian scientists have been using a special device to track the ozone layer for 21 years. They recorded the past decade's best result in 2019.
https://youtu.be/BDVFemLFufY
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027891.html

Lebanese-Armenians

The police released a video to guide Lebanese diasporans on how to obtain a passport, drivers' license, etc.
https://youtu.be/WdJdCJ6VBKU

Parliament approves paternity leave and parental protections

Parliament voted 116-1 to approve the QP bill. It'll give 5 days of paid paternity leave to fathers, and prevent employers from worsening the workers' rights and terms within 1 year of child's birth.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027789.html

FDIC insurance limit has been raised

Parliament voted 117-0 to approve a BHK bill to provide more protection to bank account holders.
If your bank goes bust, you are guaranteed to receive up to $33,000 if your money is in Drams, or $15,000 if it's in foreign currency.
It used to be $21,000 and $11,000.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027793.html

Yolyan blood center ex-director charged w/embezzlement

Yolyan center's former director colluded with his secretaries to embezzle a portion of salary bonuses, worth $56,000, that was meant to be paid to employees between 2001-2018, according to authorities.
A felony case is launched. https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195872

Yolyan blood center's new director

Samvel Danielyan replaced the aforementioned Yolyan director in 2018. He has been laid off.
Due to his retirement age, the law prohibits the renewal of his contract as a director, explained Healthcare Ministry.
Nonetheless, several doctors want him to stay. Child cancer clinic director Gevorg Tamamyan and his colleagues also decided to quit unless the Yolyan director stays. They sent a letter to Pashinyan to intervene.
"We aren't sure if the law prohibits renewal of his contract, but even if it does, the govt should do everything possible to find solutions to preserve experts like him."
https://factor.am/283737.html
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195897

LED lights

FPWC doesn't just protect wild animals. They want to help nature. They teamed up with Viva Telecom to install energy-efficient street lighting in Vaghanit. The LED uses 80% less energy.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195896

ախմախ լակոտ

A resident of Sari Tagh district welded a giant cross... on a live gas pipeline. The emergency department warned against messing with the gas. The cross was removed.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195892

COVID stats

Whopping +4135 tested (many teachers).+257 infected. +128 healed. +3 deaths. 247,839 tested.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195865
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027823.html

COVID vs tourism

An expert says Armenia lost $700m from tourism drop during the pandemic. That's ~800,000 tourists who could have spent ~$800 each.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1027889.html

Pashinyan about COVID tickets

"The $20 tickets won't be refunded. The collected funds will be used towards healthcare and subsidies," said the PM.
The opposition is against penalizing those who violate the mask requirement and they want the past tickets refunded.
https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/285199/

Pashinyan about COVID handling

"We've been 100% transparent during the pandemic. Our strategy was 100% correct. Certain shortcomings always happen," said PM.
https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/285204/

Take the photo of your ID...

... and show it to a police officer during a COVID-check, said Justice Minister. "That way they won't take you to the police station for identification if you forget your ID."
That's actually a GENIUS move! 🤔 A new technology?? https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/195910

Laureates of Hrant Dink Prize

Istanbul's Armenian Agos newspaper writer Hrant Dink would be 66yo on September 15th. He was gunned down for his views and ethnicity in 2007.
Every year Agos gives a prize named after Dink to prominent figures. This year's first winner is Osman Kavala, an activist friendly with Kurds and Armenians, who was arrested with propped up "coup" charges by the Erdogan regime, after being charged with organizing "riots" earlier. Europe has urged Erdogan to release him.
 
The second laureate is female rights activist Egyptian Mozn Hasan.
 
Popular singer Arto Tunjboyajyan performed for the audience during the online ceremony, joined by Dink's widow who sang the late journalist's favorite song "Yes byulbyul em".
https://youtu.be/_LqdZlV5ATg
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195858

the cattle cave to become a tourist spot

A local businessman from Alaverdi, Lori launched a cave-restaurant (not cafe-restaurant... stupid aurocorrect) called "Mendz Er" last month.
The cave used to be a barn full of crap. He began cleaning it up in 2000. Initially, he wanted to turn it into a craftsmanship center but later decided to mix arts with a restaurant.
The cave will soon have a gallery and already has art pieces dating back to the 9th century.
Photos: https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194619

grandmaster Lyovik Aronyan

... is playing in Sent Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament.
He defeated the Iranian opponent while playing with blacks, defeated Russian Grischuk with whites, then tied another Russian with blacks.
So far he leads the tournament with 5 points.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/195875
 
You've read 2307 words.

Disclaimer & Terminology

1) The accused are innocent until proven guilty in the court of law, even if they sound guilty.
2) Currency in Armenian ֏ unless specified otherwise.
3) NSS/SIS/SOC = law enforcement agencies. QP = Civil Contract Party. LHK = Bright Armenia Party. BHK = Prosperous Armenia Party. HHK = Republican Party. ARF = Armenian Revolutionary Federation Party
4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Idontknowmuch: PART 1 ; PART 2 ; PART 3 ; PART 4 ; PART 5.
5) ARCHIVE of older posts by Armeniapedia.
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